Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi take on LNZ Cherkasy.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees LNZ Cherkasy travel to Tonkocheyev Stadium to take on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have posted 3W 5D 2L at Tonkocheyev Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tonkocheyev Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
LNZ Cherkasy — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) versus 1.40 (LNZ Cherkasy). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 20% and LNZ Cherkasy's 10% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, 2 for LNZ Cherkasy and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 16% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 37% | LNZ Cherkasy 21%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50% | LNZ Cherkasy 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.94 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.735 / defence 0.950 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.729 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.092. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack strength of 0.735 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 38 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 38 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 35% | Draw 39% | LNZ Cherkasy 25%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.86 | Draw 2.56 | LNZ Cherkasy 4.00. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — LNZ Cherkasy's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 25% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.69 combined xG gives a 24% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 20% | LNZ Cherkasy 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tonkocheyev Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 35% | Draw 39% | LNZ Cherkasy 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 35% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.94 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.735 / def 0.950 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.729 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
0.76
LNZ Cherkasy xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Tonkocheyev Stadium.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at Tonkocheyev Stadium.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 35% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 25% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (2 meetings): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W | Draws 0 | LNZ Cherkasy 2W.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against LNZ Cherkasy's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.82
39%
2.56
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
1.69
0.76
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.82
35%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
10%
10.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.4 | 13.9 | 5.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0.76 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 10D 18L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, LNZ Cherkasy sit at 1.87 PPG from 38 outings (21W 8D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home form reads 5W 6D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, LNZ Cherkasy have taken 1.79 points per game from 19 outings (10W 4D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.21 scored and 0.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy in 21%.
Defensively: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; LNZ Cherkasy in 61% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 games (1.05 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 21W 8D 9L in their last 38 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
LNZ Cherkasy's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 1.11 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 61%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 2 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-2 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and LNZ Cherkasy?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 37% BTTS, LNZ Cherkasy 16%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 37% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 63%; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 42% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 16% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 37% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.