Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi welcome Kudrivka to Tonkocheyev Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — All Games: 3W 6D 1L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Tonkocheyev Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tonkocheyev Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kudrivka stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kudrivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kudrivka's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) versus 1.30 (Kudrivka). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, 1 for Kudrivka and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2026, ended 3–0 with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Kudrivka in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 38% versus Kudrivka 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50% | Kudrivka 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.52 xG and Kudrivka 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.973 / defence 0.881 | Kudrivka attack 0.857 / defence 1.308. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.082. Kudrivka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.308 — this is suppressing Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 35 Kudrivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 52% | Draw 30% | Kudrivka 18%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Kudrivka 5.56. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 20% | Kudrivka 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tonkocheyev Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 52% | Draw 30% | Kudrivka 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.52 / Kudrivka 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.973 / def 0.881 | Kudrivka attack 0.857 / def 1.308 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Kudrivka xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Tonkocheyev Stadium.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at Tonkocheyev Stadium.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 52% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka?
Record (3 meetings): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2W | Draws 0 | Kudrivka 1W.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Kudrivka (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack rating (0.97) and Kudrivka's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kudrivka's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win
52%
1.92
30%
3.39
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.34
0.82
Kudrivka xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
4%
25.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0.82 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come into this having played 34 games, going 10W 9D 15L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kudrivka sit at 0.85 PPG from 34 outings (6W 11D 17L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kudrivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 1.15 PPG, Kudrivka on 0.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home form reads 5W 5D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Kudrivka have taken 0.47 points per game from 17 outings (1W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 0.97 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Early Season
Kudrivka
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 6W 11D 17L in their last 34 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or Kudrivka away?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 1.18 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.47 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Kudrivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Kudrivka in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
Draws
1
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka?
From 3 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 2, Kudrivka have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Kudrivka 0-3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 41%, Kudrivka 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 35% (Kudrivka).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 35% of games; Kudrivka in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Kudrivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 47% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 35% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Kudrivka in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.