Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4-5 Kryvbas KR – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kryvbas KR at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi host Kryvbas KR at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 September 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — All Games: 1W 1D 4L from 6 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.67 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have posted 0W 1D 2L at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion — 0.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kryvbas KR stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kryvbas KR's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Kryvbas KR — 1.03 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.67). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Kryvbas KR in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 33% versus Kryvbas KR 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 33% | Kryvbas KR 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.01 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.779 / defence 1.275 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.073 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.183 / away 1.196. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 35 Kryvbas KR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 23% | Draw 25% | Kryvbas KR 52%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Kryvbas KR 1.92. Kryvbas KR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kryvbas KR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 67% | Kryvbas KR 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Ternopilsky Misky Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 23% | Draw 25% | Kryvbas KR 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.01 / Kryvbas KR 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.779 / def 1.275 | Kryvbas KR attack 1.073 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.183 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Kryvbas KR xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4 - 5 Kryvbas KR.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR being played?
The match is being played at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 23% chance of winning, Kryvbas KR a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Kryvbas KR (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack at 0.78x the league average against Kryvbas KR's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kryvbas KR's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
23%
4.29
25%
4.06
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.64
1.64
Kryvbas KR xG
4.29
23%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
5%
22.04
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.64 for Kryvbas KR, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 1D 4L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kryvbas KR sit at 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Kryvbas KR have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Kryvbas KR are on 1.50 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Early Season
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while Kryvbas KR have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or Kryvbas KR away?
Kryvbas KR's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 0.33 PPG; Kryvbas KR away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
Draws
2
Kryvbas KR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR?
From 2 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, Kryvbas KR have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Kryvbas KR 2-1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 67%, Kryvbas KR at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 67% for Kryvbas KR. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Kryvbas KR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Kryvbas KR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's games and 100% of Kryvbas KR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kryvbas KR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's matches and 67% of Kryvbas KR's.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kryvbas KR tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Kryvbas KR in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Kryvbas KR edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4-5.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4-5 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.01 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.64 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 4-5 for 9 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kryvbas KR outscored their 1.64 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.78 / defence 1.27 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.07 / defence 1.09, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 23% | Draw 25% | Kryvbas KR 52%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 33%, Kryvbas KR 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.67. Form held, and they took the win. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.