Dnipro-1 5-2 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dnipro-1 host Lviv at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 April 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dnipro-1 — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Avanhard, Dnipro-1 have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Dnipro-1 are significantly better at Stadion Avanhard than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lviv stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lviv have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Dnipro-1 have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Dnipro-1, 0 for Lviv and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with Dnipro-1 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Lviv in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 42% versus Lviv 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 64% | Lviv 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.45 xG and Lviv 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.128 / defence 0.846 | Lviv attack 0.802 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.231. Data: 36 Dnipro-1 games / 36 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 52% | Draw 27% | Lviv 22%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Lviv 4.55. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dnipro-1 50% | Lviv 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 52% | Draw 27% | Lviv 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Dnipro-1 1.45 / Lviv 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.128 / def 0.846 | Lviv attack 0.802 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Lviv xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Lviv kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Lviv kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Lviv?
Dnipro-1 5 - 2 Lviv.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Lviv part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 52% chance of winning, Lviv a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Lviv?
Record (2 meetings): Dnipro-1 2W | Draws 0 | Lviv 0W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Lviv in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Lviv (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dnipro-1's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Lviv's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Dnipro-1's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
52%
1.94
27%
3.74
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.29
0.84
Lviv xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
5%
19.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 0.84 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dnipro-1's recent record stands at 26W 4D 6L from 36 games, a 2.28 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 7W 9D 20L across 36 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 1.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lviv heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dnipro-1 have managed 14W 1D 2L from 17 games — 2.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lviv's away record stands at 4W 3D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Dnipro-1 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.75 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Lviv in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 26W 4D 6L in their last 36 games (2.28 PPG), while Lviv have gone 7W 9D 20L in their last 36 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Lviv away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.53 PPG; Lviv away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Lviv in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dnipro-1 go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Dnipro-1 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Dnipro-1
0
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 3, Lviv have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Dnipro-1 5-2 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Lviv?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 41%, Lviv 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Dnipro-1) and 29% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Lviv in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 35% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Dnipro-1's recent games and 29% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dnipro-1 and Lviv tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Lviv in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dnipro-1 run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Lviv 5-2 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.45 xG and Lviv 0.84 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Dnipro-1 beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lviv outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.13 / defence 0.85 against Lviv attack 0.80 / defence 1.14, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 52% | Draw 27% | Lviv 22%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 64%, Lviv 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Lviv's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.24 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lviv (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.65 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.