Dnipro-1 5-2 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dnipro-1 (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dnipro-1 face Chornomorets.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chornomorets make the trip to Dnipro Arena to face Dnipro-1 in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Monday 27 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Dnipro-1 (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dnipro Arena, Dnipro-1 have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dnipro Arena. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dnipro Arena this season.
Chornomorets have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Dnipro-1. A 1.20 PPG lead over Chornomorets (2.50 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Dnipro-1, who have won 4 of the last 4 meetings against Chornomorets — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Dnipro-1 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Dnipro-1 and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Dnipro-1 — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Chornomorets — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 49% versus Chornomorets 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 56% | Chornomorets 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.39 xG and Chornomorets 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.078 / defence 0.802 | Chornomorets attack 1.088 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.108 / away 1.191. Data: 44 Dnipro-1 games / 43 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 44% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 27%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Chornomorets 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Dnipro-1 50% | Chornomorets 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Monday 27 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 44% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Dnipro-1 1.39 / Chornomorets 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.078 / def 0.802 | Chornomorets attack 1.088 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.108 / away 1.191 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Chornomorets xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 27 November 2023 at Dnipro Arena.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets?
Dnipro-1 5 - 2 Chornomorets.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 44% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets?
Record (4 meetings): Dnipro-1 4W | Draws 0 | Chornomorets 0W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Chornomorets (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dnipro-1's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Chornomorets's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (1.09x) against Dnipro-1's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.50
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.43
1.04
Chornomorets xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
7%
14.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 1.04 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dnipro-1 come into this having played 43 games, going 29W 7D 7L for 2.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chornomorets sit at 1.26 PPG from 43 outings (15W 9D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Dnipro-1's home form reads 15W 4D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Chornomorets have taken 1.41 points per game from 22 outings (9W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 29W 7D 7L in their last 43 games (2.19 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 15W 9D 19L in their last 43 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Chornomorets away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.23 PPG; Chornomorets away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Dnipro-1 have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dnipro-1 won 0-3 on 31 Jul 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dnipro-1 have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Dnipro-1
0
Draws
0
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets?
From 6 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 6, Chornomorets have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2024, when Chornomorets 0-2 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 50%, Chornomorets 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Dnipro-1) and 59% (Chornomorets). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Chornomorets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Dnipro-1's games and 64% of Chornomorets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Dnipro-1's matches and 59% of Chornomorets's.
Do Dnipro-1 and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dnipro-1 run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Chornomorets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Chornomorets 5-2 at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.39 xG and Chornomorets 1.04 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Dnipro-1 beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Chornomorets outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.08 / defence 0.80 against Chornomorets attack 1.09 / defence 1.17, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 44% | Draw 29% | Chornomorets 27%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 56%, Chornomorets 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Chornomorets's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chornomorets (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.