Chornomorets 1-0 Polessya – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Polessya at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Polessya fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chornomorets host Polessya at Stadion Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 September 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Chornomorets have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Chornomorets, Chornomorets have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Polessya stand at 4W 0D 2L from 6 Premier League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 0.67. Defensively, 0.67 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Polessya have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Polessya have posted 3W 0D 1L from 4 away outings — 2.25 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Polessya — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Chornomorets trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Polessya trading profile (6 games): they score before half-time in 17% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 50% versus Polessya 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 50% | Polessya 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.36 xG and Polessya 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 1.188 / defence 0.993 | Polessya attack 1.167 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.196. Data: 36 Chornomorets games / 6 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 36% | Draw 27% | Polessya 37%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Polessya 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Chornomorets 50% | Polessya 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 36% | Draw 27% | Polessya 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Chornomorets 1.36 / Polessya 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 1.188 / def 0.993 | Polessya attack 1.167 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Polessya (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Polessya xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Polessya kick off?
Chornomorets vs Polessya kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Chornomorets 1 - 0 Polessya.
Where is Chornomorets vs Polessya being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Polessya part of?
Chornomorets vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 36% chance of winning, Polessya a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Chornomorets and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Polessya?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chornomorets and Polessya in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Polessya (all comps): 4W-0D-2L in 6 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chornomorets's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.75
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.74
1.39
Polessya xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
9%
11.11
10%
10.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.39 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chornomorets's recent record stands at 3W 0D 3L from 6 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Polessya, meanwhile, have gone 4W 0D 2L across 6 games — 2.00 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Polessya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Polessya by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chornomorets heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Chornomorets are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.67 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Polessya in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Early Season
Polessya
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Polessya in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 3W 0D 3L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Polessya have gone 4W 0D 2L in their last 6 (2.00 PPG).
Have Chornomorets or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Polessya in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chornomorets and Polessya runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Polessya go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2024, when Chornomorets won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chornomorets's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
0
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Polessya?
From 5 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Polessya have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Chornomorets 1-2 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Polessya tend to start slowly — only 17% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 50%, Polessya 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chornomorets) and 50% (Polessya).
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Polessya in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 33% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chornomorets's recent games and 50% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Polessya tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Polessya in 17% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Chornomorets defy the odds to beat Polessya 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat Polessya 1-0 at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.36 xG and Polessya 1.39 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Polessya landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 1.19 / defence 0.99 against Polessya attack 1.17 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 36% | Draw 27% | Polessya 37%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Chornomorets win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 50%, Polessya 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Polessya's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Chornomorets winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Chornomorets conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Polessya managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.