Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Chornomorets take on Obolon'-Brovar.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chornomorets host Obolon'-Brovar at in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chornomorets — All Games: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chornomorets's home record at : 1W 1D 1L from 3 Premier League appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 3 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at .
Looking at all fixtures this season, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Obolon'-Brovar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Obolon'-Brovar away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Chornomorets) versus 0.80 (Obolon'-Brovar). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Chornomorets, 1 for Obolon'-Brovar and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Obolon'-Brovar winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Chornomorets in-play tendencies (4 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar in-play tendencies (4 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 100% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Chornomorets 25% | Obolon'-Brovar 0%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chornomorets 25% | Obolon'-Brovar 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.83 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.750 / defence 0.914 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.642 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.082. Chornomorets's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Chornomorets games / 33 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 36% | Draw 41% | Obolon'-Brovar 24%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.78 | Draw 2.44 | Obolon'-Brovar 4.17. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.47. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.47 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Obolon'-Brovar's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 24% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 18% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 28% on No. Form rates corroborate: Chornomorets 33% | Obolon'-Brovar 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 36% | Draw 41% | Obolon'-Brovar 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 28% | xG Chornomorets 0.83 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.750 / def 0.914 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.642 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Obolon'-Brovar xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 36% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 24% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (4 meetings): Chornomorets 2W | Draws 1 | Obolon'-Brovar 1W.
What form are Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-D. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Chornomorets's attack rating (0.75) and Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (17.6%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.81
41%
2.47
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
1.47
0.64
Obolon'-Brovar xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.47
41%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.52
72%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
10%
9.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.0 | 14.6 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.6%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Chornomorets and 0.64 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 1.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chornomorets come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Obolon'-Brovar sit at 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L), a run that reads L-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 1.00 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Chornomorets's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Obolon'-Brovar have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 3D 0L).
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.00 scored and 0.75 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Chornomorets have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Obolon'-Brovar in 0%.
Defensively: Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Obolon'-Brovar in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Early Season
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Chornomorets's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 1.33 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 75%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Chornomorets's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
1
Draws
1
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 4 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar?
Chornomorets have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Obolon'-Brovar tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Chornomorets 33% BTTS, Obolon'-Brovar 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Chornomorets and 0% for Obolon'-Brovar.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar in 100%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 33% of games; Obolon'-Brovar in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 0% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chornomorets's recent games and 0% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.