Chornomorets 0-0 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chornomorets at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 5 as Chornomorets welcome Livyi Bereh to Stadion Chornomorets. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 September 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chornomorets stand at 1W 0D 2L from 3 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Livyi Bereh have recorded 1W 4D 0L from 5 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Livyi Bereh have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Chornomorets 1.00 PPG, Livyi Bereh 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Chornomorets, 2 for Livyi Bereh and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Livyi Bereh winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Chornomorets in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 33% versus Livyi Bereh 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Chornomorets 33% | Livyi Bereh 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 1.11 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.882 / defence 1.009 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.815 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.103. Data: 3 Chornomorets games / 3 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 39% | Draw 33% | Livyi Bereh 28%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Livyi Bereh 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chornomorets as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chornomorets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.02 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Chornomorets 33% | Livyi Bereh 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Chornomorets • Kick-off: Friday 4 Sep 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 39% | Draw 33% | Livyi Bereh 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Chornomorets 1.11 / Livyi Bereh 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.882 / def 1.009 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.815 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Chornomorets (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Livyi Bereh xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 10:00 on Friday 4 September 2026 at Stadion Chornomorets.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Chornomorets 0 - 0 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Chornomorets.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 39% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Chornomorets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh?
Record (2 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 0 | Livyi Bereh 2W.
What form are Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-W. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 1W-4D-0L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.88x the league average against Livyi Bereh's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Livyi Bereh's attack versus Chornomorets's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chornomorets Win
39%
2.58
33%
3.02
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.02
0.91
Livyi Bereh xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
9%
10.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.1 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Chornomorets and 0.91 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chornomorets come into this having played 3 games, going 1W 0D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Livyi Bereh sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 3D 0L), a run that reads D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chornomorets on 1.00 PPG, Livyi Bereh on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Chornomorets are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.67 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Early Season
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 0W 3D 0L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Chornomorets or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Chornomorets's record when hosting Livyi Bereh specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chornomorets
1
Draws
2
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh?
From 3 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 0, Livyi Bereh have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Chornomorets 0-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh?
Livyi Bereh have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 33%, Livyi Bereh 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Chornomorets and 0% for Livyi Bereh.
On the defensive side: Chornomorets keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Livyi Bereh in 33%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 33% of games; Livyi Bereh in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 67% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Chornomorets's recent games and 0% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Chornomorets's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Chornomorets, Regular Season - 5, as Chornomorets and Livyi Bereh drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 1.11 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.91 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Chornomorets fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Livyi Bereh landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 39% | Draw 33% | Livyi Bereh 28%, with Chornomorets to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 17% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 33%, Livyi Bereh 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chornomorets 1.00 PPG, Livyi Bereh 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Chornomorets conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.