Yeni Malatyaspor 1-3 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Yeni Malatyaspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yeni Malatyaspor vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 12 as Yeni Malatyaspor welcome Başakşehir to Yeni Malatya Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 2W 0D 4L this season (6 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Başakşehir stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Başakşehir, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Başakşehir away from home this season: 1W 0D 4L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Yeni Malatyaspor 1.20 PPG, Başakşehir 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Yeni Malatyaspor in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Başakşehir in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yeni Malatyaspor 27% versus Başakşehir 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yeni Malatyaspor 36% | Başakşehir 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yeni Malatyaspor 1.44 xG and Başakşehir 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.916 / defence 1.514 | Başakşehir attack 0.858 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.100. Başakşehir bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing Yeni Malatyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Yeni Malatyaspor games / 11 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 38% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 37%. Fair-value odds: Yeni Malatyaspor 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Başakşehir 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Yeni Malatyaspor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Yeni Malatyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Yeni Malatyaspor 50% | Başakşehir 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yeni Malatyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Yeni Malatya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yeni Malatyaspor 38% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Yeni Malatyaspor 1.44 / Başakşehir 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.916 / def 1.514 | Başakşehir attack 0.858 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Yeni Malatyaspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Başakşehir xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yeni Malatyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Yeni Malatyaspor 1 - 3 Başakşehir.
Where is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu.
What competition is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Yeni Malatyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Yeni Malatyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Yeni Malatyaspor a 38% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Yeni Malatyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yeni Malatyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Yeni Malatyaspor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Yeni Malatyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Başakşehir?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Başakşehir in?
Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Yeni Malatyaspor's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Yeni Malatyaspor's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Yeni Malatyaspor Win
38%
2.66
25%
3.95
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
Total xG
2.87
1.43
Başakşehir xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
9%
11.10
9%
11.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Yeni Malatyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Yeni Malatyaspor and 1.43 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Yeni Malatyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Yeni Malatyaspor's recent record stands at 4W 0D 7L from 11 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Yeni Malatyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 5W 0D 6L across 11 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Başakşehir is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Yeni Malatyaspor on 1.09 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Yeni Malatyaspor have managed 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 1W 0D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Başakşehir's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yeni Malatyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Yeni Malatyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.36 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yeni Malatyaspor have seen both teams score in 27% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yeni Malatyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yeni Malatyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 4W 0D 7L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 5W 0D 6L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yeni Malatyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Yeni Malatyaspor's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yeni Malatyaspor at home: 1.20 PPG; Başakşehir away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Yeni Malatyaspor and Başakşehir runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
0
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yeni Malatyaspor and Başakşehir?
From 2 meetings on record, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, Başakşehir have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yeni Malatyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2022, when Başakşehir 1-0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Yeni Malatyaspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yeni Malatyaspor 40%, Başakşehir 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Yeni Malatyaspor and 80% for Başakşehir. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yeni Malatyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yeni Malatyaspor play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Yeni Malatyaspor's games and 80% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yeni Malatyaspor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Yeni Malatyaspor's matches and 80% of Başakşehir's.
Do Yeni Malatyaspor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Yeni Malatyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Başakşehir cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Yeni Malatyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Yeni Malatyaspor 1-3 at Yeni Malatya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yeni Malatyaspor 1.44 xG and Başakşehir 1.43 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Başakşehir outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.51 against Başakşehir attack 0.86 / defence 1.29, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yeni Malatyaspor 38% | Draw 25% | Başakşehir 37%, with Yeni Malatyaspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Başakşehir win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yeni Malatyaspor 36%, Başakşehir 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yeni Malatyaspor 1.09 PPG, Başakşehir 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Yeni Malatyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.