Trabzonspor 2-1 Konyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 25 as Trabzonspor welcome Konyaspor to Medical Park Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 February 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Medical Park Stadyumu this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Medical Park Stadyumu.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Konyaspor stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Trabzonspor) versus 2.20 (Konyaspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 0, Konyaspor 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (23 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (23 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 56% versus Konyaspor 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 48% | Konyaspor 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.17 xG and Konyaspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.021 / defence 0.797 | Konyaspor attack 1.132 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.089. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 24 Trabzonspor games / 23 Konyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 39% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 30%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Konyaspor 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 40% | Konyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Medical Park Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 39% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Trabzonspor 1.17 / Konyaspor 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.021 / def 0.797 | Konyaspor attack 1.132 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Konyaspor xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Trabzonspor 2 - 1 Konyaspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Medical Park Stadyumu.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 39% chance of winning, Konyaspor a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Trabzonspor and Konyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Trabzonspor 0W | Draws 1 | Konyaspor 0W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Konyaspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Konyaspor (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Konyaspor's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, Konyaspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
39%
2.55
31%
3.22
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.15
0.98
Konyaspor xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
9%
10.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Konyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 0.98 for Konyaspor, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 23 games, going 16W 6D 1L for 2.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Konyaspor sit at 2.09 PPG from 23 outings (14W 6D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trabzonspor on 2.35 PPG, Konyaspor on 2.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 7W 3D 0L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Konyaspor have taken 1.80 points per game from 10 outings (5W 3D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game recently; Konyaspor are on 1.52 scored and 0.70 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Konyaspor in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Konyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Konyaspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 16W 6D 1L in their last 23 games (2.35 PPG), while Konyaspor have gone 14W 6D 3L in their last 23 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Konyaspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.40 PPG; Konyaspor away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Konyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Konyaspor in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Konyaspor specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
3
Konyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Konyaspor have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Konyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Konyaspor 2-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Konyaspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 40%, Konyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Trabzonspor and 40% for Konyaspor.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Konyaspor in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Konyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Konyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 50% of Konyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Konyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Trabzonspor's recent games and 40% of Konyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trabzonspor and Konyaspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Konyaspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Konyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Konyaspor 2-1 at Medical Park Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.17 xG and Konyaspor 0.98 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.02 / defence 0.80 against Konyaspor attack 1.13 / defence 1.00, drawn from 24/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 39% | Draw 31% | Konyaspor 30%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 48%, Konyaspor 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (23 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Konyaspor's trading profile (23 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 2.35 PPG, Konyaspor 2.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.