Trabzonspor 2-3 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Trabzonspor face Kasımpaşa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kasımpaşa make the trip to Papara Park to face Trabzonspor in Süper Lig (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Monday 29 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Trabzonspor have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Trabzonspor at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kasımpaşa's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kasımpaşa's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Trabzonspor, 1.10 for Kasımpaşa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) — Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kasımpaşa in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Trabzonspor edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2023, ended Trabzonspor 5–1 Kasımpaşa — a Trabzonspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Trabzonspor — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 58% versus Kasımpaşa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 60% | Kasımpaşa 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.81 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 0.968 / defence 1.211 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.161 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.194. Kasımpaşa's defence rating of 1.245 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Trabzonspor's projected output up. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 1.211 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kasımpaşa's projected output up. Data: built from Trabzonspor's last 57 games and Kasımpaşa's last 58.
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 40% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 35%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.50 | Draw 3.96 | Kasımpaşa 2.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.68) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Trabzonspor's last 10 home games and Kasımpaşa's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Trabzonspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Kasımpaşa 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 23 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Monday 29 January 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 40% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Trabzonspor 1.81 / Kasımpaşa 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 0.968 / def 1.211 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.161 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Kasımpaşa xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa FAQs
What time does Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 29 January 2024 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Trabzonspor 2 - 3 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 23) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 40% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Trabzonspor's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Kasımpaşa's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Kasımpaşa's attack (1.16x) against Trabzonspor's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from Trabzonspor's last 57 games and Kasımpaşa's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
40%
2.50
25%
3.96
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.49
1.68
Kasımpaşa xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
7%
13.37
6%
17.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.68 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Trabzonspor's recent record stands at 27W 10D 20L from 57 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Kasımpaşa, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 25L across 57 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Trabzonspor against 1.26 for Kasımpaşa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Trabzonspor have managed 18W 5D 5L from their last 28 home games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — Trabzonspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kasımpaşa's away record stands at 8W 7D 13L across their last 28 away games, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.46 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
Trabzonspor (Home) vs Kasımpaşa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Trabzonspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa Form FAQs
What form are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 27W 10D 20L in their last 57 games (1.60 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 20W 12D 25L in their last 57 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.11 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trabzonspor won Kasımpaşa 1-5 Trabzonspor on 1 Sep 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Trabzonspor have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kasımpaşa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Trabzonspor
4
Draws
2
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Trabzonspor have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Kasımpaşa 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Kasımpaşa see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 46%, Kasımpaşa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Trabzonspor) and 57% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Trabzonspor vs Kasımpaşa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 50% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Trabzonspor's matches and 57% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Trabzonspor and Kasımpaşa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 52% of Kasımpaşa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kasımpaşa defy the odds to beat Trabzonspor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Trabzonspor 2-3 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.81 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.68 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Kasımpaşa outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 0.97 / defence 1.21 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.16 / defence 1.25, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 40% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 35%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Kasımpaşa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 60%, Kasımpaşa 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trabzonspor 1.60 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.