Trabzonspor 4-1 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 45%, yet in-form Fatih Karagümrük provide a compelling counter-argument — this Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Fatih Karagümrük travel to Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi to take on Trabzonspor. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 May 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Trabzonspor's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi than their overall form suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fatih Karagümrük are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Trabzonspor have won 1, Fatih Karagümrük 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2022, ended 1–4 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Trabzonspor in-play and half-time data (69 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük in-play and half-time data (69 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Trabzonspor 61% versus Fatih Karagümrük 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 56% | Fatih Karagümrük 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.71 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.142 / defence 0.753 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.319 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.420. Fatih Karagümrük have an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Trabzonspor's defence rating of 0.753 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Trabzonspor games / 70 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 45% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 32%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 2.22 | Draw 4.35 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.12. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trabzonspor as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fatih Karagümrük (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Trabzonspor 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi • Kick-off: Monday 22 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 45% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Trabzonspor 1.71 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.142 / def 0.753 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.319 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Fatih Karagümrük xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 22 May 2023 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Trabzonspor 4 - 1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 45% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (3 meetings): Trabzonspor 1W | Draws 1 | Fatih Karagümrük 1W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.14x the league average against Fatih Karagümrük's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fatih Karagümrük's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
45%
2.24
23%
4.26
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
3.12
1.41
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
6%
17.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.41 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trabzonspor come into this having played 69 games, going 36W 18D 15L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Fatih Karagümrük sit at 1.42 PPG from 69 outings (26W 20D 23L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-L across their last five.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Trabzonspor's home form reads 22W 11D 2L across 35 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Fatih Karagümrük have taken 1.31 points per game from 35 outings (12W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.62 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 36W 18D 15L in their last 69 games (1.83 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 26W 20D 23L in their last 69 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Trabzonspor's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 2.20 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Trabzonspor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trabzonspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Mar 2024, when Trabzonspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Fatih Karagümrük specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Trabzonspor
2
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 5, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Trabzonspor 3-1 Fatih Karagümrük.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 51%, Fatih Karagümrük 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Trabzonspor) and 66% (Fatih Karagümrük). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trabzonspor keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Trabzonspor's recent matches and 54% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Trabzonspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 49% of Trabzonspor's matches and 66% of Fatih Karagümrük's.
Do Trabzonspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 at Şenol Güneş Spor Kompleksi, Regular Season - 35, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.71 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.41 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.14 / defence 0.75 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.32 / defence 0.93, drawn from 69/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 45% | Draw 23% | Fatih Karagümrük 32%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 56%, Fatih Karagümrük 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.