Trabzonspor 5-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Trabzonspor (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Trabzonspor face Adana Demirspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Trabzonspor host Adana Demirspor at Papara Park in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 25 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Trabzonspor — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Papara Park, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Trabzonspor are significantly better at Papara Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Adana Demirspor have recorded 0W 2D 8L from 10 outings — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Adana Demirspor have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Trabzonspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Trabzonspor, 2 for Adana Demirspor and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Trabzonspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Trabzonspor trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Adana Demirspor trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trabzonspor 59% and Adana Demirspor 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trabzonspor 55% | Adana Demirspor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trabzonspor 1.80 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trabzonspor attack 1.161 / defence 1.061 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.777 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.325. Data: 49 Trabzonspor games / 49 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trabzonspor 52% | Draw 27% | Adana Demirspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Trabzonspor 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Adana Demirspor 4.76. Trabzonspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Trabzonspor 70% | Adana Demirspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Papara Park • Kick-off: Monday 25 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trabzonspor 52% | Draw 27% | Adana Demirspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Trabzonspor 1.80 / Adana Demirspor 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Trabzonspor attack 1.161 / def 1.061 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.777 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Trabzonspor xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Adana Demirspor xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 25 November 2024 at Papara Park.
What was the final score in Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Trabzonspor 5 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at Papara Park.
What competition is Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Trabzonspor a 52% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (6 meetings): Trabzonspor 4W | Draws 0 | Adana Demirspor 2W.
What form are Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor in?
Trabzonspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Trabzonspor's attack at 1.16x the league average against Adana Demirspor's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Adana Demirspor's attack versus Trabzonspor's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
52%
1.92
27%
3.76
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Trabzonspor xG
Total xG
2.89
1.09
Adana Demirspor xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
4%
28.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Trabzonspor and 1.09 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trabzonspor come into this having played 49 games, going 23W 10D 16L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Adana Demirspor sit at 0.94 PPG from 49 outings (10W 16D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trabzonspor's home form reads 14W 3D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Adana Demirspor have taken 0.62 points per game from 24 outings (1W 12D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trabzonspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Trabzonspor are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trabzonspor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Trabzonspor have gone 23W 10D 16L in their last 49 games (1.61 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 10W 16D 23L in their last 49 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trabzonspor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Trabzonspor's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trabzonspor at home: 1.88 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2024, when Trabzonspor won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trabzonspor's record when hosting Adana Demirspor specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Trabzonspor
0
Draws
2
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Trabzonspor have won 6, Adana Demirspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-1 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trabzonspor 62%, Adana Demirspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Trabzonspor) and 50% (Adana Demirspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trabzonspor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trabzonspor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Trabzonspor's games and 67% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trabzonspor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Trabzonspor's matches and 50% of Adana Demirspor's.
Do Trabzonspor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Trabzonspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Trabzonspor run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Adana Demirspor 5-0 at Papara Park, Regular Season - 13, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trabzonspor 1.80 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.09 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Trabzonspor beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Adana Demirspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trabzonspor attack 1.16 / defence 1.06 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.78 / defence 1.05, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trabzonspor 52% | Draw 27% | Adana Demirspor 21%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trabzonspor 55%, Adana Demirspor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trabzonspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.