İstanbulspor 0-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates İstanbulspor at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as İstanbulspor face Alanyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
İstanbulspor and Alanyaspor meet at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 December 2023 at 10:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
İstanbulspor have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
İstanbulspor's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Alanyaspor's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Alanyaspor away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, İstanbulspor edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Feb 2023, ended İstanbulspor 2–1 Alanyaspor — a İstanbulspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
İstanbulspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Alanyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — İstanbulspor 48% versus Alanyaspor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (İstanbulspor 56% | Alanyaspor 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects İstanbulspor 1.72 xG and Alanyaspor 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: İstanbulspor attack 0.916 / defence 1.177 | Alanyaspor attack 0.663 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.265. Alanyaspor's attack rating of 0.663 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from İstanbulspor's last 50 games and Alanyaspor's last 50.
Result probabilities: İstanbulspor 53% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 21%. Fair-value odds: İstanbulspor 1.87 | Draw 3.85 | Alanyaspor 4.87. İstanbulspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates İstanbulspor as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on İstanbulspor if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (İstanbulspor's last 10 home games and Alanyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: İstanbulspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Alanyaspor 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 15 | Venue: Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: İstanbulspor 53% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG İstanbulspor 1.72 / Alanyaspor 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: İstanbulspor attack 0.916 / def 1.177 | Alanyaspor attack 0.663 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: İstanbulspor (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
İstanbulspor xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Alanyaspor xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor?
İstanbulspor 0 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 15) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives İstanbulspor a 53% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making İstanbulspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both İstanbulspor and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates İstanbulspor's attack at 0.92x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alanyaspor's attack (0.66x) against İstanbulspor's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from İstanbulspor's last 50 games and Alanyaspor's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
İstanbulspor Win
53%
1.87
26%
3.85
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
İstanbulspor xG
Total xG
2.71
0.99
Alanyaspor xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
4%
27.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are İstanbulspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for İstanbulspor and 0.99 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
İstanbulspor come into this having played 50 games, going 14W 7D 29L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.04 PPG from 50 outings (13W 13D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for İstanbulspor against 1.04 for Alanyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
İstanbulspor's home form reads 8W 4D 12L across their last 24 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 0.62 points per game from their last 24 away games (3W 6D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alanyaspor's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, İstanbulspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
İstanbulspor are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.30 scored and 1.86 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
İstanbulspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
İstanbulspor (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
İstanbulspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are İstanbulspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
İstanbulspor have gone 14W 7D 29L in their last 50 games (0.98 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 13W 13D 24L in their last 50 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — İstanbulspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
İstanbulspor's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — İstanbulspor at home: 1.17 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Alanyaspor have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alanyaspor won Alanyaspor 6-0 İstanbulspor on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, İstanbulspor have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Alanyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
İstanbulspor
0
Draws
2
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between İstanbulspor and Alanyaspor?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, İstanbulspor have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did İstanbulspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 April 2024: Alanyaspor 6-0 İstanbulspor.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
İstanbulspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — İstanbulspor 54%, Alanyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for İstanbulspor and 67% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: İstanbulspor have failed to score in 29% of games; Alanyaspor in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = İstanbulspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ İstanbulspor vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in İstanbulspor and Alanyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of İstanbulspor's recent matches and 50% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are İstanbulspor and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of İstanbulspor's matches and 67% of Alanyaspor's.
Do İstanbulspor and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of İstanbulspor's recent matches and 74% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alanyaspor defy the odds to beat İstanbulspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alanyaspor beat İstanbulspor 0-1 at Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting İstanbulspor 1.72 xG and Alanyaspor 0.99 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. İstanbulspor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of İstanbulspor attack 0.92 / defence 1.18 against Alanyaspor attack 0.66 / defence 1.17, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it İstanbulspor 53% | Draw 26% | Alanyaspor 21%, with İstanbulspor to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Alanyaspor win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (İstanbulspor 56%, Alanyaspor 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
İstanbulspor's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — İstanbulspor 0.98 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alanyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. İstanbulspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.