Sivasspor 0-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 38%, yet in-form Samsunspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sivasspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Samsunspor travel to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu to take on Sivasspor. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 December 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's home record at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Samsunspor — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Samsunspor are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sivasspor, 1 for Samsunspor and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2024, ended 0–2 with Samsunspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Samsunspor in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 58% versus Samsunspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 53% | Samsunspor 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.56 xG and Samsunspor 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.948 / defence 1.068 | Samsunspor attack 1.191 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.184. Data: 54 Sivasspor games / 53 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 38% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Samsunspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Samsunspor (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 60% | Samsunspor 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 38% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Sivasspor 1.56 / Samsunspor 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.948 / def 1.068 | Samsunspor attack 1.191 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Samsunspor xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Sivasspor 0 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 38% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sivasspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Samsunspor?
Record (2 meetings): Sivasspor 0W | Draws 1 | Samsunspor 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Samsunspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Samsunspor (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (0.95) and Samsunspor's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Samsunspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
38%
2.66
27%
3.69
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
3.06
1.51
Samsunspor xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.00
7%
13.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.51 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Sivasspor have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 19W 14D 20L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor's form line: 20W 12D 21L from 53 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.34 PPG, Samsunspor on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sivasspor have posted 1.50 PPG from 26 outings (10W 9D 7L).
On the road, Samsunspor have gone 6W 5D 15L from 26 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 1.34 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 19W 14D 20L in their last 53 games (1.34 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 20W 12D 21L in their last 53 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.50 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Samsunspor runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sivasspor's record when hosting Samsunspor specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sivasspor
2
Draws
2
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Samsunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 0, Samsunspor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Samsunspor 1-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Samsunspor?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 58%, Samsunspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Sivasspor) and 50% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Samsunspor in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Sivasspor's games and 54% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sivasspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Sivasspor's recent games and 50% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sivasspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 17, as Sivasspor and Samsunspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.56 xG and Samsunspor 1.51 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Samsunspor landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.95 / defence 1.07 against Samsunspor attack 1.19 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 38% | Draw 27% | Samsunspor 35%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 53%, Samsunspor 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Samsunspor's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.34 PPG, Samsunspor 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.