Sivasspor 1-0 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sivasspor face Rizespor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Rizespor at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 11 February 2024 at 10:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Sivasspor — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sivasspor's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Rizespor have recorded 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Rizespor have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sivasspor at 1.50 PPG versus Rizespor's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Sivasspor's games and 60% of Rizespor's (from Sivasspor's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sivasspor, 0 for Rizespor and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Sivasspor 1–1 Rizespor — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sivasspor trading profile (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Rizespor trading profile (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 62% versus Rizespor 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 46% | Rizespor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.86 xG and Rizespor 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.922 / defence 0.936 | Rizespor attack 0.770 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.173. Rizespor's defence rating of 1.363 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sivasspor's projected output up. Rizespor's attack rating of 0.770 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Sivasspor's last 60 games and Rizespor's last 24.
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 59% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 14%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 1.69 | Draw 3.77 | Rizespor 6.96. The model has a clear lean to Sivasspor (59%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sivasspor at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sivasspor's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sivasspor 60% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 25 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 11 February 2024 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 59% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Sivasspor 1.86 / Rizespor 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.922 / def 0.936 | Rizespor attack 0.770 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Rizespor xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sivasspor vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Sivasspor vs Rizespor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Rizespor kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Sunday 11 February 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Sivasspor 1 - 0 Rizespor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Rizespor part of?
Sivasspor vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 25) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 59% chance of winning, Rizespor a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sivasspor and Rizespor will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Sivasspor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sivasspor's attack at 0.92x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sivasspor's last 60 games and Rizespor's last 24 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
59%
1.69
27%
3.77
14%
6.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.70
0.84
Rizespor xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
6.96
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
16%
6.41
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
2%
44.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sivasspor vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Sivasspor and 0.84 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor come into this having played 24 games, going 7W 9D 8L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.25 PPG, Rizespor on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sivasspor's home form reads 2W 7D 2L across their last 11 home games, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.82 points per game from their last 11 away games (2W 3D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.12 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rizespor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
Sivasspor (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sivasspor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Sivasspor vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Sivasspor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 7W 9D 8L in their last 24 games (1.25 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 10W 6D 8L in their last 24 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Rizespor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.18 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.82 PPG.
Have Sivasspor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sivasspor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Rizespor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sivasspor's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sivasspor
3
Draws
0
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Sivasspor vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Rizespor?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sivasspor have won 3, Rizespor have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2025: Rizespor 1-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Rizespor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 64%, Rizespor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Sivasspor) and 73% (Rizespor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sivasspor vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sivasspor and Rizespor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sivasspor's games and 64% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sivasspor and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Sivasspor's recent games and 73% of Rizespor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 82% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sivasspor edge out Rizespor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Rizespor 1-0 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.86 xG and Rizespor 0.84 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sivasspor fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Rizespor landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.92 / defence 0.94 against Rizespor attack 0.77 / defence 1.36, drawn from 60/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 59% | Draw 27% | Rizespor 14%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 46%, Rizespor 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Rizespor's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.25 PPG, Rizespor 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.