Sivasspor 0-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sivasspor host Hatayspor at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 September 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sivasspor's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Hatayspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sivasspor at 1.00 PPG versus Hatayspor's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sivasspor, 1 for Hatayspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Sivasspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sivasspor trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Hatayspor trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 62% versus Hatayspor 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 55% | Hatayspor 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.17 xG and Hatayspor 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.870 / defence 1.105 | Hatayspor attack 0.887 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.301. Data: 42 Sivasspor games / 42 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 30% | Draw 35% | Hatayspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 3.33 | Draw 2.86 | Hatayspor 2.86. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 80% | Hatayspor 10%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 30% | Draw 35% | Hatayspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Sivasspor 1.17 / Hatayspor 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.870 / def 1.105 | Hatayspor attack 0.887 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Hatayspor xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Sivasspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Sivasspor 0 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Sivasspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Sivasspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 30% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 35% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sivasspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Hatayspor?
Record (4 meetings): Sivasspor 2W | Draws 1 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Hatayspor in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sivasspor's attack rating (0.87) and Hatayspor's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hatayspor's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.36
35%
2.85
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.44
1.28
Hatayspor xG
3.36
30%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
8%
12.03
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.28 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sivasspor's recent record stands at 12W 11D 19L from 42 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hatayspor, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 25L across 42 games — 0.79 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hatayspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.12 PPG, Hatayspor on 0.79. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sivasspor have managed 5W 9D 7L from 21 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hatayspor's away record stands at 3W 3D 15L across 21 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sivasspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sivasspor are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 0.71 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Early Season
Hatayspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 8W 9D 25L in their last 42 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.14 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sivasspor and Hatayspor runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Nov 2021, when Sivasspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Hatayspor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sivasspor
3
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Hatayspor 3-2 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Hatayspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 71%, Hatayspor 24% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sivasspor) and 71% (Hatayspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hatayspor in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 24% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Sivasspor's matches and 71% of Hatayspor's.
Do Sivasspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sivasspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor and Hatayspor finished level at 0-0 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.17 xG and Hatayspor 1.28 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sivasspor fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Hatayspor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Hatayspor attack 0.89 / defence 0.93, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 30% | Draw 35% | Hatayspor 35%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 55%, Hatayspor 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.12 PPG, Hatayspor 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sivasspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.