Sivasspor 3-2 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 5 as Sivasspor welcome Gaziantep FK to BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sivasspor stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sivasspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sivasspor's home record at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Gaziantep FK have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Gaziantep FK have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Gaziantep FK have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Sivasspor) versus 1.60 (Gaziantep FK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sivasspor, 1 for Gaziantep FK and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sivasspor in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Gaziantep FK in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sivasspor 55% versus Gaziantep FK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sivasspor 45% | Gaziantep FK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sivasspor 1.04 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sivasspor attack 0.771 / defence 0.841 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.048 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.307. Sivasspor's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Sivasspor games / 40 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sivasspor 31% | Draw 33% | Gaziantep FK 36%. Fair-value odds: Sivasspor 3.23 | Draw 3.03 | Gaziantep FK 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gaziantep FK are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sivasspor 40% | Gaziantep FK 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sivasspor 31% | Draw 33% | Gaziantep FK 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Sivasspor 1.04 / Gaziantep FK 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sivasspor attack 0.771 / def 0.841 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.048 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Gaziantep FK (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Sivasspor xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Gaziantep FK xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Sivasspor 3 - 2 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu.
What competition is Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Sivasspor a 31% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 36% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gaziantep FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (6 meetings): Sivasspor 2W | Draws 3 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sivasspor's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Gaziantep FK's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Gaziantep FK's attack versus Sivasspor's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gaziantep FK Win
31%
3.25
33%
3.04
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Sivasspor xG
Total xG
2.19
1.15
Gaziantep FK xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Sivasspor and 1.15 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sivasspor come into this having played 40 games, going 14W 12D 14L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Sivasspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Gaziantep FK sit at 1.18 PPG from 40 outings (13W 8D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sivasspor on 1.35 PPG, Gaziantep FK on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Sivasspor's home form reads 7W 8D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Gaziantep FK have taken 1.15 points per game from 20 outings (7W 2D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sivasspor are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.27 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sivasspor
Early Season
Gaziantep FK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Sivasspor have gone 14W 12D 14L in their last 40 games (1.35 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 13W 8D 19L in their last 40 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sivasspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Sivasspor's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sivasspor at home: 1.45 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2022, when Gaziantep FK won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sivasspor's record when hosting Gaziantep FK specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sivasspor
3
Draws
2
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 8 meetings on record, Sivasspor have won 3, Gaziantep FK have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Gaziantep FK 2-1 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sivasspor 50%, Gaziantep FK 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Sivasspor) and 60% (Gaziantep FK).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Gaziantep FK in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sivasspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sivasspor play Gaziantep FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sivasspor's recent matches and 50% of Gaziantep FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sivasspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Sivasspor's recent games and 60% of Gaziantep FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sivasspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Sivasspor have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sivasspor defy the odds to beat Gaziantep FK 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Gaziantep FK 3-2 at BG Group 4 Eylül Stadyumu, Regular Season - 5, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sivasspor 1.04 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.15 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sivasspor beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gaziantep FK outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sivasspor attack 0.77 / defence 0.84 against Gaziantep FK attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 42/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sivasspor 31% | Draw 33% | Gaziantep FK 36%, with Gaziantep FK to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Sivasspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sivasspor 45%, Gaziantep FK 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sivasspor's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sivasspor 1.35 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.