Samsunspor 0-0 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Samsunspor take on Gaziantep FK.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu plays host to Samsunspor versus Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Samsunspor have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Samsunspor at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Gaziantep FK (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Gaziantep FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gaziantep FK have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Samsunspor, 0.60 for Gaziantep FK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Samsunspor 2W, Gaziantep FK 1W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Gaziantep FK — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 48% versus Gaziantep FK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 48% | Gaziantep FK 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.13 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.696 / defence 0.980 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.935 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.245. Samsunspor's attack strength of 0.696 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Samsunspor games / 59 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 31% | Draw 37% | Gaziantep FK 32%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | Gaziantep FK 3.12. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Samsunspor 40% | Gaziantep FK 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Gaziantep FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 31% | Draw 37% | Gaziantep FK 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Samsunspor 1.13 / Gaziantep FK 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.696 / def 0.980 | Gaziantep FK attack 0.935 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Gaziantep FK xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Samsunspor vs Gaziantep FK kick off?
Samsunspor vs Gaziantep FK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Samsunspor 0 - 0 Gaziantep FK.
Where is Samsunspor vs Gaziantep FK being played?
The match is being played at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Gaziantep FK part of?
Samsunspor vs Gaziantep FK is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 31% chance of winning, Gaziantep FK a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Samsunspor and Gaziantep FK will score (BTTS).
Will Samsunspor vs Gaziantep FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Gaziantep FK?
Record (5 meetings): Samsunspor 2W | Draws 2 | Gaziantep FK 1W.
What form are Samsunspor and Gaziantep FK in?
Samsunspor (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Gaziantep FK (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Samsunspor's attack at 0.70x the league average against Gaziantep FK's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gaziantep FK's attack (0.94x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.18
37%
2.74
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.27
1.14
Gaziantep FK xG
3.18
31%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
10%
9.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Gaziantep FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.14 for Gaziantep FK, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Gaziantep FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 26W 17D 16L from 59 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gaziantep FK, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 24L across 59 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Gaziantep FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.24 for Gaziantep FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Samsunspor have managed 14W 7D 8L from 29 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gaziantep FK's away record stands at 5W 9D 15L across 29 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gaziantep FK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Samsunspor are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Gaziantep FK are on 1.27 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Gaziantep FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Samsunspor and Gaziantep FK in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 26W 17D 16L in their last 59 games (1.61 PPG), while Gaziantep FK have gone 19W 16D 24L in their last 59 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Gaziantep FK away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.69 PPG; Gaziantep FK away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Gaziantep FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Gaziantep FK in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gaziantep FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
3
Draws
1
Gaziantep FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Gaziantep FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Samsunspor have won 2, Gaziantep FK have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Gaziantep FK last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Samsunspor 0-0 Gaziantep FK.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Gaziantep FK?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Gaziantep FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 45%, Gaziantep FK 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Samsunspor) and 69% (Gaziantep FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Samsunspor have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Gaziantep FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Samsunspor play Gaziantep FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Samsunspor's games and 66% of Gaziantep FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Samsunspor vs Gaziantep FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Samsunspor's matches and 69% of Gaziantep FK's.
Do Samsunspor and Gaziantep FK tend to score early?
Samsunspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Gaziantep FK in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Samsunspor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor and Gaziantep FK finished level at 0-0 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Regular Season - 24, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.13 xG and Gaziantep FK 1.14 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Samsunspor fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Gaziantep FK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.70 / defence 0.98 against Gaziantep FK attack 0.94 / defence 1.20, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 31% | Draw 37% | Gaziantep FK 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 48%, Gaziantep FK 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gaziantep FK's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.61 PPG, Gaziantep FK 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Samsunspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Gaziantep FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.