Samsunspor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Samsunspor face Fatih Karagümrük.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu plays host to Samsunspor versus Fatih Karagümrük in Süper Lig (matchday 19). Kick-off: Saturday 6 January 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Samsunspor (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Samsunspor have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 home games (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fatih Karagümrük's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.10 for Fatih Karagümrük. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Samsunspor's last 8 home games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 75% of Samsunspor's games and 70% of Fatih Karagümrük's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Samsunspor half-time and goal-timing data (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Fatih Karagümrük half-time and goal-timing data (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 65% versus Fatih Karagümrük 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Samsunspor 53% | Fatih Karagümrük 41%). Note also that Fatih Karagümrük surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Samsunspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.34 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.956 / defence 1.142 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.894 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.517 / away 1.249. Data: built from Samsunspor's last 17 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 53.
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 36% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 33%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.74 | Draw 3.32 | Fatih Karagümrük 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Samsunspor 75% (last 8 home games) | Fatih Karagümrük 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 19 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 6 January 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 36% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Samsunspor 1.34 / Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.956 / def 1.142 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.894 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.517 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Fatih Karagümrük xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük FAQs
What time does Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 6 January 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Samsunspor 1 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 19) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 36% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Samsunspor's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Fatih Karagümrük's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.89x) against Samsunspor's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Samsunspor's last 17 games and Fatih Karagümrük's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
36%
2.74
30%
3.32
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.62
1.27
Fatih Karagümrük xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
10%
9.81
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.27 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 4W 3D 10L from 17 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five.
Fatih Karagümrük, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 8L across 17 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.00 for Fatih Karagümrük. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Samsunspor have managed 3W 2D 3L from their last 8 home games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record stands at 1W 2D 5L across their last 8 away games, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Samsunspor are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 1.06 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Samsunspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fatih Karagümrük in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
Samsunspor (Home) vs Fatih Karagümrük (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Samsunspor
Blended
Fatih Karagümrük
Blended
❓ Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Form FAQs
What form are Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 4W 3D 10L in their last 17 games (0.88 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 4W 5D 8L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.38 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Samsunspor or Fatih Karagümrük been keeping clean sheets recently?
Samsunspor have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Fatih Karagümrük in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük, the earliest from January 2024. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
1
Draws
1
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Samsunspor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Fatih Karagümrük 0-0 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Samsunspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Samsunspor, 62% for Fatih Karagümrük — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Samsunspor) and 38% (Fatih Karagümrük).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Samsunspor vs Fatih Karagümrük Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Samsunspor's games and 62% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Samsunspor's recent games and 38% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Fatih Karagümrük matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 88% of Fatih Karagümrük's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Samsunspor edge out Fatih Karagümrük 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 19, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.34 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 1.27 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fatih Karagümrük landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.14 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.89 / defence 0.93, drawn from 17/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 36% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 33%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 53%, Fatih Karagümrük 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 0.88 PPG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.