Samsunspor 2-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Samsunspor at 35% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Samsunspor face Antalyaspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Samsunspor and Antalyaspor meet at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Monday 12 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Samsunspor have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Samsunspor have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Samsunspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Antalyaspor (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Antalyaspor have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Samsunspor, 1 for Antalyaspor and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Samsunspor 0–2 Antalyaspor — a Antalyaspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Samsunspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 24 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 24 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Samsunspor 58% versus Antalyaspor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Samsunspor 42% | Antalyaspor 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Samsunspor 1.21 xG and Antalyaspor 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Samsunspor attack 0.900 / defence 0.947 | Antalyaspor attack 1.064 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.166. Data: built from Samsunspor's last 24 games and Antalyaspor's last 60.
Result probabilities: Samsunspor 35% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 33%. Fair-value odds: Samsunspor 2.88 | Draw 3.08 | Antalyaspor 3.04. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Samsunspor at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Samsunspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Samsunspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Antalyaspor 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 25 | Venue: Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 12 February 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Samsunspor 35% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Samsunspor 1.21 / Antalyaspor 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Samsunspor attack 0.900 / def 0.947 | Antalyaspor attack 1.064 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Samsunspor (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Samsunspor xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Antalyaspor xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor FAQs
What time does Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 12 February 2024 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Samsunspor 2 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu.
What competition is Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 25) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Samsunspor a 35% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Samsunspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Samsunspor and Antalyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Samsunspor's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (1.06x) against Samsunspor's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from Samsunspor's last 24 games and Antalyaspor's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Samsunspor Win
35%
2.88
32%
3.08
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Samsunspor xG
Total xG
2.39
1.18
Antalyaspor xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
10%
10.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Samsunspor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Samsunspor and 1.18 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Samsunspor's recent record stands at 7W 5D 12L from 24 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Antalyaspor, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 6L across 24 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Samsunspor against 1.42 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Samsunspor have managed 6W 2D 3L from their last 11 home games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Samsunspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Antalyaspor's away record stands at 3W 4D 4L across their last 11 away games, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Samsunspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Samsunspor are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.21 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Samsunspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
Samsunspor (Home) vs Antalyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Samsunspor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Samsunspor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Samsunspor have gone 7W 5D 12L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 8W 10D 6L in their last 24 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Samsunspor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Samsunspor's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Samsunspor at home: 1.82 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Samsunspor and Antalyaspor, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Antalyaspor have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Samsunspor have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Samsunspor
0
Draws
4
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Samsunspor and Antalyaspor?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Samsunspor have won 2, Antalyaspor have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Samsunspor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: Antalyaspor 3-1 Samsunspor.
Who has won more matches between Samsunspor and Antalyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Samsunspor 54%, Antalyaspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Samsunspor) and 46% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Samsunspor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Samsunspor vs Antalyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Samsunspor and Antalyaspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Samsunspor's games and 64% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Samsunspor and Antalyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Samsunspor's recent games and 46% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Samsunspor and Antalyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Samsunspor's recent matches and 91% of Antalyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Samsunspor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Samsunspor beat Antalyaspor 2-0 at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Samsunspor 1.21 xG and Antalyaspor 1.18 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Samsunspor attack 0.90 / defence 0.95 against Antalyaspor attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 24/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Samsunspor 35% | Draw 32% | Antalyaspor 33%, with Samsunspor to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Samsunspor 42%, Antalyaspor 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Samsunspor's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Samsunspor 1.08 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Samsunspor win broke the near-deadlock. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.