Rizespor 1-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Trabzonspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rizespor host Trabzonspor at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 25 January 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 7W 1D 2L at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Trabzonspor have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trabzonspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trabzonspor's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rizespor 1.80 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Rizespor have won 2, Trabzonspor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 3–2 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 48% versus Trabzonspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 48% | Trabzonspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.33 xG and Trabzonspor 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.954 / defence 1.029 | Trabzonspor attack 1.263 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.214. Trabzonspor have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 21 Rizespor games / 56 Trabzonspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 30% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 41%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Trabzonspor 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trabzonspor at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rizespor 30% | Trabzonspor 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 25 Jan 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 30% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Rizespor 1.33 / Trabzonspor 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.954 / def 1.029 | Trabzonspor attack 1.263 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Trabzonspor xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 25 January 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Rizespor 1 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 30% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rizespor and Trabzonspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Trabzonspor?
Record (3 meetings): Rizespor 2W | Draws 0 | Trabzonspor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Trabzonspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Trabzonspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.95x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
30%
3.35
29%
3.43
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.90
1.58
Trabzonspor xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
6%
16.24
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.58 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Rizespor have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 9W 5D 7L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trabzonspor's form line: 11W 4D 6L from 21 games, 1.76 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Trabzonspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.52 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 2.09 PPG from 11 outings (7W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Trabzonspor have gone 5W 3D 3L from 11 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rizespor are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trabzonspor in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 9W 5D 7L in their last 21 games (1.52 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 11W 4D 6L in their last 21 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Rizespor's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 2.09 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Trabzonspor go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Rizespor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Rizespor
0
Draws
4
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Trabzonspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 4, Trabzonspor have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Trabzonspor 1-0 Rizespor.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 27%, Trabzonspor 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Rizespor) and 54% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Rizespor have failed to score in 27% of games; Trabzonspor in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Trabzonspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Rizespor's recent matches and 64% of Trabzonspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Trabzonspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Rizespor's recent games and 54% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Trabzonspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Trabzonspor in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rizespor defy the odds to beat Trabzonspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Trabzonspor 1-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.33 xG and Trabzonspor 1.58 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Trabzonspor landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Trabzonspor attack 1.26 / defence 0.92, drawn from 21/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 30% | Draw 29% | Trabzonspor 41%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Rizespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 48%, Trabzonspor 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.52 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.