Rizespor 3-0 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rizespor face Kayserispor.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rizespor and Kayserispor meet at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Current Form
Rizespor's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Rizespor have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rizespor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Kayserispor have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kayserispor's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Rizespor, 1 for Kayserispor and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Rizespor 1–3 Kayserispor — a Kayserispor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Rizespor half-time and goal-timing data (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 41% versus Kayserispor 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 48% | Kayserispor 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.52 xG and Kayserispor 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.862 / defence 1.006 | Kayserispor attack 1.073 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.182. Kayserispor's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rizespor's projected output up. Data: built from Rizespor's last 27 games and Kayserispor's last 63.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 40% | Draw 31% | Kayserispor 29%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.50 | Draw 3.22 | Kayserispor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rizespor at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rizespor's last 10 home games and Kayserispor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rizespor 30% (last 10 home games) | Kayserispor 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Kayserispor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 28 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 40% | Draw 31% | Kayserispor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Rizespor 1.52 / Kayserispor 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.862 / def 1.006 | Kayserispor attack 1.073 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Kayserispor xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Kayserispor FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Kayserispor kick off?
Rizespor vs Kayserispor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Rizespor 3 - 0 Kayserispor.
Where is Rizespor vs Kayserispor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Kayserispor part of?
Rizespor vs Kayserispor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 28) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 40% chance of winning, Kayserispor a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rizespor and Kayserispor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rizespor vs Kayserispor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 0.86x the league average against Kayserispor's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kayserispor's attack (1.07x) against Rizespor's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 27 games and Kayserispor's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
40%
2.50
31%
3.22
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.80
1.28
Kayserispor xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
6%
15.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Kayserispor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Kayserispor expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.28 for Kayserispor, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Kayserispor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor's recent record stands at 10W 6D 11L from 27 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Kayserispor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 8D 9L across 27 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Rizespor against 1.41 for Kayserispor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rizespor have managed 8W 2D 3L from their last 13 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kayserispor's away record stands at 4W 3D 6L across their last 13 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Kayserispor are on 1.30 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
Rizespor (Home) vs Kayserispor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Blended
Kayserispor
Blended
❓ Rizespor vs Kayserispor Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Kayserispor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 10W 6D 11L in their last 27 games (1.33 PPG), while Kayserispor have gone 10W 8D 9L in their last 27 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Kayserispor away?
Rizespor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 2.00 PPG; Kayserispor away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Kayserispor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kayserispor in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Rizespor and Kayserispor, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kayserispor have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won Rizespor 3-0 Kayserispor on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Kayserispor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Rizespor
1
Draws
4
Kayserispor
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Kayserispor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kayserispor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 3, Kayserispor have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Kayserispor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Kayserispor 2-0 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Kayserispor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 31%, Kayserispor 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Rizespor) and 54% (Kayserispor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Kayserispor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Kayserispor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Kayserispor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Rizespor's recent matches and 69% of Kayserispor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rizespor and Kayserispor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Rizespor's recent games and 54% of Kayserispor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Kayserispor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Rizespor's recent matches and 62% of Kayserispor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rizespor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Kayserispor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Kayserispor 3-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 28, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.52 xG and Kayserispor 1.28 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rizespor beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kayserispor landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.86 / defence 1.01 against Kayserispor attack 1.07 / defence 1.21, drawn from 27/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 40% | Draw 31% | Kayserispor 29%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 48%, Kayserispor 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Kayserispor's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.33 PPG, Kayserispor 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.