Rizespor 0-0 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rizespor host Kasımpaşa at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rizespor stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Rizespor have posted 6W 2D 2L at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Rizespor are significantly better at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Kasımpaşa — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Kasımpaşa's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rizespor at 1.30 PPG versus Kasımpaşa's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Rizespor have won 1, Kasımpaşa 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Rizespor in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 44% versus Kasımpaşa 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 58% | Kasımpaşa 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.97 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 1.059 / defence 0.943 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.071 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.253. Data: 36 Rizespor games / 72 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 52% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 23%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Kasımpaşa 4.35. Rizespor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rizespor are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rizespor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 30% | Kasımpaşa 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 52% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Rizespor 1.97 / Kasımpaşa 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 1.059 / def 0.943 | Kasımpaşa attack 1.071 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Kasımpaşa xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Rizespor 0 - 0 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 52% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Rizespor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (3 meetings): Rizespor 1W | Draws 1 | Kasımpaşa 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rizespor's attack at 1.06x the league average against Kasımpaşa's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
52%
1.92
25%
4.03
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Rizespor xG
Total xG
3.23
1.27
Kasımpaşa xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
14%
7.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
3%
31.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.27 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Rizespor have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 14W 7D 15L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 15W 7D 14L from 36 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rizespor on 1.36 PPG, Kasımpaşa on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rizespor have posted 2.06 PPG from 18 outings (11W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 7W 3D 8L from 18 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.67 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Current Season
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 14W 7D 15L in their last 36 games (1.36 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 15W 7D 14L in their last 36 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Rizespor's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 2.06 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Rizespor or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2026, when Rizespor won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rizespor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Rizespor
2
Draws
4
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 2, Kasımpaşa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-3 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Kasımpaşa?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rizespor see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 33%, Kasımpaşa 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Rizespor) and 67% (Kasımpaşa). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Rizespor's recent matches and 67% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Rizespor's matches and 67% of Kasımpaşa's.
Do Rizespor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rizespor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor and Kasımpaşa finished level at 0-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 37, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.97 xG and Kasımpaşa 1.27 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rizespor fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Kasımpaşa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 1.06 / defence 0.94 against Kasımpaşa attack 1.07 / defence 1.18, drawn from 36/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 52% | Draw 25% | Kasımpaşa 23%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 58%, Kasımpaşa 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.36 PPG, Kasımpaşa 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rizespor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.