Rizespor 2-1 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rizespor at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rizespor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antalyaspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Thursday 20 January 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rizespor have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Antalyaspor (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Rizespor against 1.10 for Antalyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rizespor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 2–3 with Antalyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 43% versus Antalyaspor 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Antalyaspor 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.66 xG and Antalyaspor 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.938 / defence 1.173 | Antalyaspor attack 0.589 / defence 1.549. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.092. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.549 — this is suppressing Rizespor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Rizespor games / 21 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 59% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 17%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Antalyaspor 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Rizespor (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 50% | Antalyaspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Thursday 20 Jan 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 59% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG Rizespor 1.66 / Antalyaspor 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.938 / def 1.173 | Antalyaspor attack 0.589 / def 1.549 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Antalyaspor xG
43%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 20 January 2022 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Rizespor 2 - 1 Antalyaspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 59% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Rizespor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Antalyaspor?
Record (1 meetings): Rizespor 0W | Draws 0 | Antalyaspor 1W.
What form are Rizespor and Antalyaspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rizespor's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.59x) against Rizespor's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.7%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
59%
1.70
25%
4.06
17%
6.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Rizespor xG
Total xG
2.41
0.75
Antalyaspor xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
6.03
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
3%
31.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.75 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor come into this having played 21 games, going 5W 3D 13L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Rizespor against 1.10 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rizespor's home form reads 5W 1D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Rizespor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.50 points per game from 10 outings (1W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.05 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 21 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 5W 3D 13L in their last 21 games (0.86 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 6W 5D 10L in their last 21 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.60 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Rizespor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 3-0 on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Rizespor
1
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Rizespor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Antalyaspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 50%, Antalyaspor 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rizespor) and 40% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Antalyaspor in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rizespor's recent matches and 30% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rizespor's recent games and 40% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Antalyaspor 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Antalyaspor 2-1 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.66 xG and Antalyaspor 0.75 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.94 / defence 1.17 against Antalyaspor attack 0.59 / defence 1.55, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 59% | Draw 25% | Antalyaspor 17%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 57%, Antalyaspor 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 0.86 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.