Rizespor 1-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rizespor at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Antalyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Antalyaspor make the trip to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to face Rizespor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rizespor have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rizespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rizespor's home record at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Antalyaspor (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Rizespor against 1.00 for Antalyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rizespor lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2025, ended 5–2 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Rizespor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rizespor 57% versus Antalyaspor 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rizespor 57% | Antalyaspor 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.12 xG and Antalyaspor 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.933 / defence 1.060 | Antalyaspor attack 0.598 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.224. Data: 60 Rizespor games / 60 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rizespor 40% | Draw 39% | Antalyaspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 2.50 | Draw 2.56 | Antalyaspor 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rizespor as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 39% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rizespor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Rizespor 40% | Antalyaspor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 40% | Draw 39% | Antalyaspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Rizespor 1.12 / Antalyaspor 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.933 / def 1.060 | Antalyaspor attack 0.598 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Rizespor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Antalyaspor xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rizespor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Rizespor 1 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 40% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 21% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Rizespor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Rizespor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Rizespor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Antalyaspor?
Record (7 meetings): Rizespor 4W | Draws 1 | Antalyaspor 2W.
What form are Rizespor and Antalyaspor in?
Rizespor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Antalyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rizespor's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Antalyaspor's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.60x) against Rizespor's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rizespor Win
40%
2.52
39%
2.57
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Rizespor xG
Total xG
1.90
0.78
Antalyaspor xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
7%
14.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Rizespor and 0.78 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rizespor come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 13D 26L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Rizespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.13 PPG from 60 outings (18W 14D 28L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Rizespor against 1.13 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rizespor's home form reads 13W 6D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.73 points per game from 30 outings (5W 7D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rizespor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rizespor are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.02 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rizespor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 21W 13D 26L in their last 60 games (1.27 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 18W 14D 28L in their last 60 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rizespor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Rizespor's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rizespor at home: 1.50 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Rizespor have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won 3-0 on 14 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rizespor have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Rizespor
1
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Antalyaspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Rizespor have won 5, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Rizespor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Antalyaspor?
Rizespor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Antalyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rizespor 50%, Antalyaspor 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Rizespor) and 43% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Rizespor have failed to score in 27% of games; Antalyaspor in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rizespor play Antalyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Rizespor's recent matches and 40% of Antalyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rizespor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rizespor's recent games and 43% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Rizespor have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rizespor edge out Antalyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rizespor beat Antalyaspor 1-0 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 25, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.12 xG and Antalyaspor 0.78 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Antalyaspor attack 0.60 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 40% | Draw 39% | Antalyaspor 21%, with Rizespor to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 57%, Antalyaspor 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rizespor's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rizespor 1.27 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rizespor win broke the near-deadlock. Rizespor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.