Rizespor 0-0 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Alanyaspor at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rizespor vs Alanyaspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Alanyaspor travel to Çaykur Didi Stadyumu to take on Rizespor in Süper Lig (matchday 2). The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 18:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 1 games, Rizespor have gone 0W 0D 1L — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Alanyaspor stand at 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Alanyaspor away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Alanyaspor's 1.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Rizespor's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 100% of Rizespor's games and 60% of Alanyaspor's (from Rizespor's last 1 games and Alanyaspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Rizespor, 1 for Alanyaspor and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Apr 2022, ended Rizespor 1–2 Alanyaspor — a Alanyaspor win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rizespor 1.57 xG and Alanyaspor 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rizespor attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Alanyaspor attack 1.086 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.409. Data: built from Rizespor's last 1 games and Alanyaspor's last 37. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rizespor 33% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 41%. Fair-value odds: Rizespor 3.00 | Draw 3.94 | Alanyaspor 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.57 / 1.76) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Alanyaspor as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rizespor's last 1 games and Alanyaspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's sample (Rizespor 1 games, Alanyaspor 37) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rizespor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 2 | Venue: Çaykur Didi Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 19 August 2023 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rizespor 33% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Rizespor 1.57 / Alanyaspor 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Rizespor attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Alanyaspor attack 1.086 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.409 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Rizespor xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Alanyaspor xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rizespor vs Alanyaspor FAQs
What time does Rizespor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Rizespor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Rizespor 0 - 0 Alanyaspor.
Where is Rizespor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu.
What competition is Rizespor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Rizespor vs Alanyaspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 2) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Rizespor a 33% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Rizespor and Alanyaspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rizespor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rizespor's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Alanyaspor's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Rizespor's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rizespor's last 1 games and Alanyaspor's last 37, a sample that still includes some older results.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
33%
3.00
25%
3.94
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Rizespor xG
Total xG
3.33
1.76
Alanyaspor xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
21%
4.80
Win to Nil
6%
17.45
9%
11.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rizespor vs Alanyaspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Rizespor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Rizespor and 1.76 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Rizespor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rizespor come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five.
Alanyaspor carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Rizespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Rizespor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rizespor have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Alanyaspor in 0%.
Defensively: Alanyaspor in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rizespor
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
Rizespor (Home) vs Alanyaspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rizespor
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
❓ Rizespor vs Alanyaspor Form FAQs
What form are Rizespor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Rizespor have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Rizespor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rizespor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 7 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Rizespor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Rizespor
3
Draws
4
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Rizespor vs Alanyaspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rizespor and Alanyaspor?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Rizespor have won 2, Alanyaspor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rizespor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 September 2026: Rizespor 0-1 Alanyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Rizespor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rizespor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rizespor vs Alanyaspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rizespor and Alanyaspor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Rizespor's recent matches and 0% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rizespor and Alanyaspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Rizespor's recent games and 0% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rizespor and Alanyaspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Rizespor's recent matches and 100% of Alanyaspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rizespor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Çaykur Didi Stadyumu, Regular Season - 2, as Rizespor and Alanyaspor drew 0-0 in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rizespor 1.57 xG and Alanyaspor 1.76 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rizespor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Alanyaspor landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rizespor attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Alanyaspor attack 1.09 / defence 1.20, drawn from 1/37 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rizespor 33% | Draw 25% | Alanyaspor 41%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rizespor 100%, Alanyaspor 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Alanyaspor arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rizespor managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Alanyaspor managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.