Pendikspor 1-0 Samsunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pendikspor at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pendikspor vs Samsunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pendikspor and Samsunspor meet at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 November 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Pendikspor (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pendikspor's home record at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu: 0W 2D 3L from 5 Süper Lig appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu this season.
Samsunspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Samsunspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Samsunspor have gone 0W 1D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.17 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.17 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Pendikspor — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Samsunspor — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 82% and Samsunspor 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 64% | Samsunspor 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.54 xG and Samsunspor 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.772 / defence 1.730 | Samsunspor attack 0.683 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.267. Pendikspor's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Samsunspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing Pendikspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Pendikspor games / 11 Samsunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 37% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Samsunspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pendikspor are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pendikspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pendikspor 80% | Samsunspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Samsunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 37% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG Pendikspor 1.54 / Samsunspor 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.772 / def 1.730 | Samsunspor attack 0.683 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Pendikspor (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Samsunspor xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pendikspor vs Samsunspor kick off?
Pendikspor vs Samsunspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Samsunspor?
Pendikspor 1 - 0 Samsunspor.
Where is Pendikspor vs Samsunspor being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Samsunspor part of?
Pendikspor vs Samsunspor is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Samsunspor?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 37% chance of winning, Samsunspor a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pendikspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Samsunspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Pendikspor and Samsunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Pendikspor vs Samsunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Samsunspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pendikspor and Samsunspor in?
Pendikspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Samsunspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pendikspor's attack at 0.77x the league average against Samsunspor's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Samsunspor's attack (0.68x) against Pendikspor's defence (1.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pendikspor Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.58
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
3.03
1.50
Samsunspor xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
8%
12.09
8%
13.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.2 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Samsunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Samsunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Pendikspor and 1.50 for Samsunspor, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Samsunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Pendikspor have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 2W 4D 5L record — L-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Samsunspor's form line: 2W 2D 7L from 11 games, 0.73 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Samsunspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Pendikspor against 0.73 for Samsunspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pendikspor have posted 0.40 PPG from 5 outings (0W 2D 3L). That actually lags their 0.91 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Samsunspor have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Samsunspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pendikspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pendikspor are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 2.27 conceded per game recently; Samsunspor are on 0.82 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Blended
Samsunspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pendikspor and Samsunspor in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 2W 4D 5L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Samsunspor have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pendikspor at home or Samsunspor away?
Pendikspor's home record (0.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pendikspor at home: 0.40 PPG; Samsunspor away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pendikspor
1
Draws
0
Samsunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Samsunspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Pendikspor have won 1, Samsunspor have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Samsunspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2024, when Samsunspor 0-0 Pendikspor.
Who has won more matches between Pendikspor and Samsunspor?
Pendikspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Samsunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pendikspor 80%, Samsunspor 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Pendikspor) and 40% (Samsunspor).
On the defensive side: Samsunspor in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Samsunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pendikspor play Samsunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Pendikspor's games and 40% of Samsunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pendikspor vs Samsunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Pendikspor's recent games and 40% of Samsunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pendikspor and Samsunspor tend to score early?
Pendikspor have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Samsunspor in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pendikspor edge out Samsunspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pendikspor beat Samsunspor 1-0 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 1.54 xG and Samsunspor 1.50 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Samsunspor landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.77 / defence 1.73 against Samsunspor attack 0.68 / defence 1.32, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 37% | Draw 28% | Samsunspor 35%, with Pendikspor to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 64%, Samsunspor 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Samsunspor's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pendikspor 0.91 PPG, Samsunspor 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pendikspor win broke the near-deadlock. Pendikspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Samsunspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.