Pendikspor 1-2 Kayserispor – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Pendikspor at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pendikspor vs Kayserispor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Kayserispor make the trip to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to face Pendikspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Form

Pendikspor (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Pendikspor's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Pendikspor are significantly better at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.

Kayserispor have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kayserispor have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Pendikspor against 1.00 for Kayserispor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pendikspor lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Kayserispor winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Pendikspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Kayserispor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pendikspor 64% versus Kayserispor 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 52% | Kayserispor 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.39 xG and Kayserispor 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.886 / defence 1.241 | Kayserispor attack 0.806 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.224. Data: 33 Pendikspor games / 69 Kayserispor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pendikspor 39% | Draw 30% | Kayserispor 31%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Kayserispor 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Pendikspor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pendikspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Pendikspor 40% | Kayserispor 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights