Pendikspor 0-1 Gaziantep FK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Gaziantep FK at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pendikspor vs Gaziantep FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu plays host to Pendikspor versus Gaziantep FK in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Pendikspor have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Pendikspor's home record at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Gaziantep FK's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Gaziantep FK's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Pendikspor, 1.30 for Gaziantep FK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Pendikspor lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Pendikspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

Gaziantep FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pendikspor 65% versus Gaziantep FK 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 54% | Gaziantep FK 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 1.56 xG and Gaziantep FK 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.833 / defence 1.262 | Gaziantep FK attack 1.355 / defence 1.205. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.248. Gaziantep FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.205 — this is suppressing Pendikspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Gaziantep FK have an above-average attack strength of 1.355 — the away xG of 2.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Pendikspor games / 72 Gaziantep FK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pendikspor 27% | Draw 23% | Gaziantep FK 50%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 3.70 | Draw 4.35 | Gaziantep FK 2.00. Gaziantep FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Gaziantep FK as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gaziantep FK if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pendikspor 50% | Gaziantep FK 70% BTTS from recent games.

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