Pendikspor 0-5 Fenerbahçe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fenerbahçe at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pendikspor vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fenerbahçe make the trip to Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu to face Pendikspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Pendikspor (all games): 1W 4D 4L across 9 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.78 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pendikspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pendikspor at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu this season: 0W 2D 2L from 4 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fenerbahçe's overall Süper Lig record this term: 10W 0D 0L from 10 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.50 is notably below their overall 3.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fenerbahçe arrive in superior form — a 2.22 PPG advantage (3.00 vs 0.78) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Pendikspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pendikspor 89% and Fenerbahçe 33% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pendikspor 56% | Fenerbahçe 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pendikspor 0.77 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pendikspor attack 0.867 / defence 1.476 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.116 / defence 0.609. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.164. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.609 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 9 Pendikspor games / 45 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pendikspor 12% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 62%. Fair-value odds: Pendikspor 8.33 | Draw 4.00 | Fenerbahçe 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Fenerbahçe (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fenerbahçe at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Pendikspor 100% | Fenerbahçe 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pendikspor vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pendikspor 12% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Pendikspor 0.77 / Fenerbahçe 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Pendikspor attack 0.867 / def 1.476 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.116 / def 0.609 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Fenerbahçe (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Pendikspor xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Fenerbahçe xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pendikspor vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Pendikspor vs Fenerbahçe kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Pendikspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Pendikspor 0 - 5 Fenerbahçe.
Where is Pendikspor vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu.
What competition is Pendikspor vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Pendikspor vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Pendikspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Pendikspor a 12% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 62% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fenerbahçe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pendikspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Pendikspor and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Pendikspor vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Fenerbahçe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pendikspor and Fenerbahçe in?
Pendikspor (all comps): 1W-4D-4L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pendikspor's attack rating (0.87) and Fenerbahçe's defence rating (0.61), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.12x) against Pendikspor's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.92.
These ratings are built from 9/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fenerbahçe Win
12%
8.17
25%
3.94
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Pendikspor xG
Total xG
2.69
1.92
Fenerbahçe xG
8.17
12%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
15%
6.79
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
2%
55.50
29%
3.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pendikspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Pendikspor and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Pendikspor and 1.92 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Pendikspor vs Fenerbahçe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pendikspor's recent record stands at 1W 4D 4L from 9 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Pendikspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 9W 0D 0L across 9 games — 3.00 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fenerbahçe by 2.22 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pendikspor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pendikspor have managed 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 4W 0D 0L across 4 trips, a 3.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fenerbahçe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pendikspor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.67 scored and 0.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pendikspor have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pendikspor
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pendikspor and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Pendikspor have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 9W 0D 0L in their last 9 (3.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pendikspor at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Fenerbahçe's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pendikspor at home: 0.50 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Pendikspor or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pendikspor have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pendikspor
0
Draws
2
Fenerbahçe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pendikspor and Fenerbahçe?
From 2 meetings on record, Pendikspor have won 0, Fenerbahçe have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pendikspor and Fenerbahçe last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2024, when Fenerbahçe 4-1 Pendikspor.
Who has won more matches between Pendikspor and Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pendikspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fenerbahçe see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pendikspor 100%, Fenerbahçe 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Pendikspor and 0% for Fenerbahçe.
On the defensive side: Fenerbahçe in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pendikspor home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pendikspor play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Pendikspor's recent matches and 0% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pendikspor vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pendikspor's recent games and 0% of Fenerbahçe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pendikspor and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Pendikspor have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fenerbahçe run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Pendikspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fenerbahçe beat Pendikspor 0-5 at Siltaş Yapı Pendik Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pendikspor 0.77 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.92 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Fenerbahçe outscored their 1.92 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pendikspor attack 0.87 / defence 1.48 against Fenerbahçe attack 1.12 / defence 0.61, drawn from 9/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pendikspor 12% | Draw 25% | Fenerbahçe 62%, with Fenerbahçe to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pendikspor 56%, Fenerbahçe 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pendikspor's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did not.
Fenerbahçe's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fenerbahçe arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.78. Form held, and they took the win. Pendikspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fenerbahçe (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.