Konyaspor 0-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Konyaspor face Sivasspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Sivasspor at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 15). Kick-off is Monday 11 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Konyaspor have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Konyaspor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sivasspor — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sivasspor's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Konyaspor) versus 1.00 (Sivasspor). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Sivasspor's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Konyaspor have won 1, Sivasspor 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 30 May 2023, ended Konyaspor 0–1 Sivasspor — a Sivasspor win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Sivasspor in-play and half-time data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Sivasspor 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Sivasspor 56%). Note also that Sivasspor surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Konyaspor recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.56 xG and Sivasspor 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.806 / defence 0.958 | Sivasspor attack 1.001 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.258. Sivasspor's defence rating of 1.227 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Konyaspor's projected output up. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 50 games and Sivasspor's last 50.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 45% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.22 | Draw 3.87 | Sivasspor 3.44. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Konyaspor at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Sivasspor's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 70% (last 10 home games) | Sivasspor 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 15 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 11 December 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 45% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Konyaspor 1.56 / Sivasspor 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.806 / def 0.958 | Sivasspor attack 1.001 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sivasspor xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Sivasspor FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 11 December 2023 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Konyaspor 0 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Sivasspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 15) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 45% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Konyaspor and Sivasspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Konyaspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.81x the league average against Sivasspor's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 50 games and Sivasspor's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.87
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.76
1.21
Sivasspor xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.41
6%
16.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Sivasspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Konyaspor and 1.21 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 15W 20D 15L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Sivasspor's form line: 14W 14D 22L from 50 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.30 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.24 PPG from their last 25 home games (7W 10D 8L).
On the road, Sivasspor have gone 9W 2D 14L from their last 25 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Konyaspor are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.26 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 62%.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
Konyaspor (Home) vs Sivasspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Konyaspor vs Sivasspor Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 15W 20D 15L in their last 50 games (1.30 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 14W 14D 22L in their last 50 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.24 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent in our data was on 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
3
Draws
4
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Sivasspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Sivasspor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 1, Sivasspor have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2025: Sivasspor 1-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 56%, Sivasspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Konyaspor) and 72% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Sivasspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Sivasspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Sivasspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Konyaspor's games and 56% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Konyaspor and Sivasspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Konyaspor's recent games and 72% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Sivasspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 48% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 92% of Sivasspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sivasspor defy the odds to beat Konyaspor 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Konyaspor 0-1 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.56 xG and Sivasspor 1.21 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Konyaspor fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against Sivasspor attack 1.00 / defence 1.23, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 45% | Draw 26% | Sivasspor 29%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Sivasspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Sivasspor 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Sivasspor's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.30 PPG, Sivasspor 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Sivasspor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.