Konyaspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 12 as Konyaspor welcome Kasımpaşa to Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Konyaspor have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's home record at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Kasımpaşa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Konyaspor are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Konyaspor, 0 for Kasımpaşa and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2022, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 53% versus Kasımpaşa 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 49% | Kasımpaşa 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.04 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.827 / defence 0.666 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.978 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.280. Konyaspor's defence rating of 0.666 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Konyaspor games / 49 Kasımpaşa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 40% | Draw 32% | Kasımpaşa 28%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.50 | Draw 3.12 | Kasımpaşa 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 30% | Kasımpaşa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 40% | Draw 32% | Kasımpaşa 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Konyaspor 1.04 / Kasımpaşa 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.827 / def 0.666 | Kasımpaşa attack 0.978 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Kasımpaşa xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kick off?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Konyaspor 1 - 1 Kasımpaşa.
Where is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa part of?
Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 40% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 28% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Record (2 meetings): Konyaspor 0W | Draws 2 | Kasımpaşa 0W.
What form are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.83) and Kasımpaşa's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kasımpaşa's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
40%
2.51
32%
3.15
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
1.88
0.83
Kasımpaşa xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
10%
10.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.83 for Kasımpaşa, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 25W 12D 12L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kasımpaşa's form line: 19W 9D 21L from 49 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Kasımpaşa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Konyaspor are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kasımpaşa.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 2.21 PPG from 24 outings (16W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Kasımpaşa have gone 9W 5D 10L from 24 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Kasımpaşa are on 1.55 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Kasımpaşa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 25W 12D 12L in their last 49 games (1.78 PPG), while Kasımpaşa have gone 19W 9D 21L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Kasımpaşa away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.21 PPG; Kasımpaşa away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Kasımpaşa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Kasımpaşa in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Kasımpaşa specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Konyaspor
6
Draws
0
Kasımpaşa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 4, Kasımpaşa have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Konyaspor 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa?
Konyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 38%, Kasımpaşa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Konyaspor) and 50% (Kasımpaşa).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Kasımpaşa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Kasımpaşa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Kasımpaşa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 50% of Kasımpaşa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Kasımpaşa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Konyaspor's recent games and 50% of Kasımpaşa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Kasımpaşa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor and Kasımpaşa finished level at 1-1 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 12, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.04 xG and Kasımpaşa 0.83 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.83 / defence 0.67 against Kasımpaşa attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 40% | Draw 32% | Kasımpaşa 28%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 49%, Kasımpaşa 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.