Konyaspor 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük meet at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Konyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Konyaspor's home record at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fatih Karagümrük have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fatih Karagümrük's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Konyaspor lead 1W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Fatih Karagümrük winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Fatih Karagümrük — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 68% versus Fatih Karagümrük 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.58 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.851 / defence 0.857 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.743 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.167. Fatih Karagümrük bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Konyaspor games / 28 Fatih Karagümrük games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 55% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.82 | Draw 3.33 | Fatih Karagümrük 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (55%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Konyaspor 50% | Fatih Karagümrük 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 55% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Konyaspor 1.58 / Fatih Karagümrük 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.851 / def 0.857 | Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.743 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Fatih Karagümrük xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kick off?
Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Konyaspor 3 - 0 Fatih Karagümrük.
Where is Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
The match is being played at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük part of?
Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 55% chance of winning, Fatih Karagümrük a 15% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
Record (7 meetings): Konyaspor 1W | Draws 4 | Fatih Karagümrük 2W.
What form are Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Fatih Karagümrük (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Konyaspor's attack rating (0.85) and Fatih Karagümrük's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fatih Karagümrük's attack (0.74x) against Konyaspor's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 64/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
55%
1.82
30%
3.33
15%
6.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.33
0.74
Fatih Karagümrük xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
6.67
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
3%
32.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.5 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.74 for Fatih Karagümrük, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 7W 10D 11L record — L-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Fatih Karagümrük's form line: 5W 5D 18L from 28 games, 0.71 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Konyaspor are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fatih Karagümrük.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (4W 6D 4L).
On the road, Fatih Karagümrük have gone 1W 2D 11L from 14 away games — 0.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Konyaspor are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Fatih Karagümrük are on 0.93 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Current Season
Fatih Karagümrük
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 7W 10D 11L in their last 28 games (1.11 PPG), while Fatih Karagümrük have gone 5W 5D 18L in their last 28 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Fatih Karagümrük away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.29 PPG; Fatih Karagümrük away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Konyaspor won 1-4 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Konyaspor have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fatih Karagümrük — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Konyaspor
4
Draws
2
Fatih Karagümrük
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük?
From 8 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 2, Fatih Karagümrük have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Konyaspor 3-0 Fatih Karagümrük.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Fatih Karagümrük are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 57%, Fatih Karagümrük 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Konyaspor) and 64% (Fatih Karagümrük).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Fatih Karagümrük in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Fatih Karagümrük away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Fatih Karagümrük?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Konyaspor's games and 64% of Fatih Karagümrük's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Konyaspor's recent games and 64% of Fatih Karagümrük's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Fatih Karagümrük tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Fatih Karagümrük in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Konyaspor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Fatih Karagümrük.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 at Konya Buyuksehir Belediye Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.58 xG and Fatih Karagümrük 0.74 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.85 / defence 0.86 against Fatih Karagümrük attack 0.74 / defence 1.32, drawn from 64/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 55% | Draw 30% | Fatih Karagümrük 15%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Fatih Karagümrük 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Fatih Karagümrük's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Konyaspor arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Fatih Karagümrük (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.