Konyaspor 3-1 Bodrum FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Bodrum FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Konyaspor and Bodrum FK meet at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 January 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Konyaspor (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's home record at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Süper Lig appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bodrum FK have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bodrum FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodrum FK away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Konyaspor 0W, Bodrum FK 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 1–3 with Bodrum FK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Konyaspor — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Bodrum FK — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 65% versus Bodrum FK 30%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Konyaspor 50% | Bodrum FK 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.70 xG and Bodrum FK 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.981 / defence 1.155 | Bodrum FK attack 0.620 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.242. Data: 58 Konyaspor games / 20 Bodrum FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 55% | Draw 28% | Bodrum FK 17%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.82 | Draw 3.57 | Bodrum FK 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Konyaspor are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 80% | Bodrum FK 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Bodrum FK | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 55% | Draw 28% | Bodrum FK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Konyaspor 1.70 / Bodrum FK 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.981 / def 1.155 | Bodrum FK attack 0.620 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Bodrum FK xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Bodrum FK kick off?
Konyaspor vs Bodrum FK kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 31 January 2025 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Bodrum FK?
Konyaspor 3 - 1 Bodrum FK.
Where is Konyaspor vs Bodrum FK being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Bodrum FK part of?
Konyaspor vs Bodrum FK is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 55% chance of winning, Bodrum FK a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Konyaspor and Bodrum FK will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Bodrum FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Bodrum FK?
Record (1 meetings): Konyaspor 0W | Draws 0 | Bodrum FK 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Bodrum FK in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Bodrum FK (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Bodrum FK's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. Flip it around — Bodrum FK's attack (0.62x) against Konyaspor's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
55%
1.83
28%
3.56
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.59
0.89
Bodrum FK xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
3%
31.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.3 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Bodrum FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Bodrum FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.89 for Bodrum FK, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Bodrum FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Konyaspor's recent record stands at 5W 6D 9L from 20 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodrum FK, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 12L across 20 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Bodrum FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Konyaspor against 0.80 for Bodrum FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Konyaspor have managed 2W 5D 2L from 9 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bodrum FK's away record stands at 1W 2D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Konyaspor are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Bodrum FK are on 0.70 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Bodrum FK in 30%.
Last 20 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Bodrum FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Bodrum FK in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Bodrum FK have gone 4W 4D 12L in their last 20 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Bodrum FK away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.22 PPG; Bodrum FK away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
0
Draws
1
Bodrum FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Bodrum FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Bodrum FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Bodrum FK last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Konyaspor 3-1 Bodrum FK.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bodrum FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 78%, Bodrum FK 22% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Konyaspor) and 33% (Bodrum FK).
On the defensive side: Bodrum FK in 33%; Bodrum FK in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Bodrum FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Bodrum FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 78% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 22% of Bodrum FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Bodrum FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Konyaspor's recent games and 33% of Bodrum FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Bodrum FK tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bodrum FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bodrum FK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Konyaspor beat Bodrum FK 3-1 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.70 xG and Bodrum FK 0.89 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.98 / defence 1.16 against Bodrum FK attack 0.62 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 55% | Draw 28% | Bodrum FK 17%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Bodrum FK 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Bodrum FK's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.05 PPG, Bodrum FK 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Konyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm. Bodrum FK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.