Konyaspor 2-3 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Konyaspor take on Başakşehir.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Başakşehir at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 28 January 2024 at 10:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Konyaspor stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Konyaspor have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Başakşehir — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Başakşehir have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Başakşehir are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Konyaspor, 2 for Başakşehir and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Konyaspor 1–0 Başakşehir — a Konyaspor win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Konyaspor in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Başakşehir in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 55% versus Başakşehir 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 47% | Başakşehir 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 0.96 xG and Başakşehir 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.792 / defence 0.871 | Başakşehir attack 0.916 / defence 0.815. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.204. Konyaspor's attack rating of 0.792 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Data: built from Konyaspor's last 58 games and Başakşehir's last 58.
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 36% | Başakşehir 32%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 3.12 | Draw 2.79 | Başakşehir 3.11. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Konyaspor's last 10 home games and Başakşehir's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Konyaspor 50% (last 10 home games) | Başakşehir 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 23 | Venue: Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 28 January 2024 at 10:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 32% | Draw 36% | Başakşehir 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Konyaspor 0.96 / Başakşehir 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.792 / def 0.871 | Başakşehir attack 0.916 / def 0.815 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Başakşehir xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Konyaspor vs Başakşehir FAQs
What time does Konyaspor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Konyaspor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 10:30 UK time on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Konyaspor 2 - 3 Başakşehir.
Where is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Başakşehir part of?
Konyaspor vs Başakşehir is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 23) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 32% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Konyaspor and Başakşehir will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Konyaspor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Konyaspor's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Konyaspor's last 58 games and Başakşehir's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.12
36%
2.79
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
1.92
0.96
Başakşehir xG
3.12
32%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 14.1 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Konyaspor vs Başakşehir Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.96 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Konyaspor have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 16W 24D 18L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Başakşehir's form line: 25W 14D 19L from 58 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.24 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Konyaspor have posted 1.25 PPG from their last 28 home games (8W 11D 9L).
On the road, Başakşehir have gone 8W 9D 11L from their last 28 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.38 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
Konyaspor (Home) vs Başakşehir (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Konyaspor
Blended
Başakşehir
Blended
❓ Konyaspor vs Başakşehir Form FAQs
What form are Konyaspor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 16W 24D 18L in their last 58 games (1.24 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 25W 14D 19L in their last 58 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Başakşehir away?
Konyaspor's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 1.25 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Konyaspor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Konyaspor
2
Draws
5
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Konyaspor vs Başakşehir H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Konyaspor have won 3, Başakşehir have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Başakşehir last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Konyaspor 0-0 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 54%, Başakşehir 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Konyaspor and 36% for Başakşehir.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Konyaspor vs Başakşehir Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Konyaspor and Başakşehir matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 43% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Konyaspor and Başakşehir matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Konyaspor's recent games and 36% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Başakşehir matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 68% of Başakşehir's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Başakşehir edge out Konyaspor 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Konyaspor 2-3 at Medaş Konya Büyükşehir Stadyumu, Regular Season - 23, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 0.96 xG and Başakşehir 0.96 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Konyaspor beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Başakşehir outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.79 / defence 0.87 against Başakşehir attack 0.92 / defence 0.81, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 32% | Draw 36% | Başakşehir 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Başakşehir win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 47%, Başakşehir 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.24 PPG, Başakşehir 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Konyaspor (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.