Konyaspor 2-2 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Alanyaspor at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 25 December 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Konyaspor — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Konyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Konyaspor at 1.60 PPG versus Alanyaspor's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Konyaspor, 1 for Alanyaspor and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 1–5 with Alanyaspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 56% versus Alanyaspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 50% | Alanyaspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.46 xG and Alanyaspor 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 0.812 / defence 0.723 | Alanyaspor attack 0.862 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.423. Alanyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.244 — this is suppressing Konyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Konyaspor's defence rating of 0.723 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Konyaspor games / 52 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 50% | Draw 28% | Alanyaspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Alanyaspor 4.55. Konyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Konyaspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Konyaspor 40% | Alanyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Dec 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 50% | Draw 28% | Alanyaspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Konyaspor 1.46 / Alanyaspor 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 0.812 / def 0.723 | Alanyaspor attack 0.862 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.423 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Alanyaspor xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 25 December 2022 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Konyaspor 2 - 2 Alanyaspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 50% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Konyaspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Record (2 meetings): Konyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Alanyaspor 1W.
What form are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Alanyaspor (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 0.81x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
50%
2.00
28%
3.60
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.34
0.89
Alanyaspor xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
5%
19.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.4 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.89 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Konyaspor come into this having played 52 games, going 26W 14D 12L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W. The sample for Konyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.56 PPG from 52 outings (23W 12D 17L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.77 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Konyaspor's home form reads 16W 6D 3L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.40 points per game from 25 outings (10W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.65 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Defensively: Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Blended
Alanyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 26W 14D 12L in their last 52 games (1.77 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 23W 12D 17L in their last 52 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.16 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Alanyaspor go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Alanyaspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
3
Draws
6
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Konyaspor 40%, Alanyaspor 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Konyaspor) and 56% (Alanyaspor).
On the defensive side: Konyaspor keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Alanyaspor in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Alanyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Konyaspor's recent matches and 56% of Alanyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Konyaspor's recent games and 56% of Alanyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Konyaspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 15, as Konyaspor and Alanyaspor drew 2-2 in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.46 xG and Alanyaspor 0.89 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Alanyaspor outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 0.81 / defence 0.72 against Alanyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 50% | Draw 28% | Alanyaspor 22%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 50%, Alanyaspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.77 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Konyaspor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.