Konyaspor 1-1 Alanyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Konyaspor at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Konyaspor host Alanyaspor at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Konyaspor — All Games: 3W 4D 0L from 7 Süper Lig outings this season, averaging 1.86 points per game. Last five: D W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.57 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Konyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Konyaspor's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 0L across 3 games at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu this term (2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Alanyaspor have recorded 4W 1D 2L from 7 outings — 1.86 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Alanyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Alanyaspor's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 road games this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Konyaspor at 1.86 PPG versus Alanyaspor's 1.86. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Konyaspor in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
Alanyaspor in-play tendencies (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Konyaspor 71% versus Alanyaspor 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Konyaspor 57% | Alanyaspor 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Konyaspor 1.69 xG and Alanyaspor 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Konyaspor attack 1.231 / defence 1.178 | Alanyaspor attack 0.762 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.056. Data: 7 Konyaspor games / 7 Alanyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Konyaspor 55% | Draw 24% | Alanyaspor 21%. Fair-value odds: Konyaspor 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Alanyaspor 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Konyaspor (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Konyaspor as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Konyaspor 100% | Alanyaspor 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Konyaspor 55% | Draw 24% | Alanyaspor 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Konyaspor 1.69 / Alanyaspor 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Konyaspor attack 1.231 / def 1.178 | Alanyaspor attack 0.762 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Konyaspor (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Konyaspor xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Alanyaspor xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor kick off?
Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Konyaspor 1 - 1 Alanyaspor.
Where is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu.
What competition is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor part of?
Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Konyaspor a 55% chance of winning, Alanyaspor a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Konyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Konyaspor and Alanyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor in?
Konyaspor (all comps): 3W-4D-0L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.57 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Alanyaspor (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Konyaspor's attack at 1.23x the league average against Alanyaspor's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alanyaspor's attack versus Konyaspor's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Konyaspor Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.16
21%
4.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Konyaspor xG
Total xG
2.64
0.95
Alanyaspor xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.76
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
4%
25.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Konyaspor and 0.95 for Alanyaspor, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Konyaspor come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 4D 0L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Konyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Alanyaspor sit at 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Alanyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Konyaspor on 1.86 PPG, Alanyaspor on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Konyaspor's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Konyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alanyaspor have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alanyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Konyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Konyaspor are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Alanyaspor are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Konyaspor have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Alanyaspor in 29%.
Defensively: Alanyaspor in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Konyaspor
Early Season
Alanyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Konyaspor and Alanyaspor in coming into this match?
Konyaspor have gone 3W 4D 0L in their last 7 games (1.86 PPG), while Alanyaspor have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Konyaspor at home or Alanyaspor away?
Konyaspor's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Konyaspor at home: 2.33 PPG; Alanyaspor away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Konyaspor or Alanyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Konyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Alanyaspor in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Alanyaspor go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Alanyaspor won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Konyaspor's record when hosting Alanyaspor specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Konyaspor
3
Draws
6
Alanyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Konyaspor have won 1, Alanyaspor have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Konyaspor and Alanyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Alanyaspor 2-1 Konyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Konyaspor and Alanyaspor?
Alanyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Konyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Konyaspor at 100%, Alanyaspor at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Konyaspor and 33% for Alanyaspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor in 33%; Alanyaspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Konyaspor home games / Alanyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Konyaspor play Alanyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Konyaspor's games and 33% of Alanyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Konyaspor vs Alanyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Konyaspor's matches and 33% of Alanyaspor's.
Do Konyaspor and Alanyaspor tend to score early?
Konyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Alanyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Konyaspor and Alanyaspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadyumu, Regular Season - 8, as Konyaspor and Alanyaspor drew 1-1 in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Konyaspor 1.69 xG and Alanyaspor 0.95 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Konyaspor attack 1.23 / defence 1.18 against Alanyaspor attack 0.76 / defence 1.15, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Konyaspor 55% | Draw 24% | Alanyaspor 21%, with Konyaspor to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Konyaspor 57%, Alanyaspor 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Konyaspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Alanyaspor's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Konyaspor 1.86 PPG, Alanyaspor 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Konyaspor (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Alanyaspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.