Kayserispor 0-0 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trabzonspor at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kayserispor host Trabzonspor at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 1 February 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Kayserispor — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Kayserispor have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Trabzonspor have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Trabzonspor are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Kayserispor's games and 60% of Trabzonspor's (from Kayserispor's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Kayserispor, 4 for Trabzonspor and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Sep 2024, ended Kayserispor 2–2 Trabzonspor — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kayserispor in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 56% versus Trabzonspor 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 53% | Trabzonspor 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kayserispor surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Trabzonspor have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.47 xG and Trabzonspor 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.825 / defence 1.406 | Trabzonspor attack 0.991 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.251. Kayserispor's defence rating of 1.406 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Trabzonspor's projected output up. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 57 games and Trabzonspor's last 57.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 31% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 42%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 3.23 | Draw 3.75 | Trabzonspor 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.74) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kayserispor's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 60% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 22 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 31% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 65% (No 35%) | xG Kayserispor 1.47 / Trabzonspor 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.825 / def 1.406 | Trabzonspor attack 0.991 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.711 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Trabzonspor xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Kayserispor 0 - 0 Trabzonspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 22) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 31% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Kayserispor and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.82x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 57 games and Trabzonspor's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
31%
3.23
27%
3.75
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.21
1.74
Trabzonspor xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
18%
5.71
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
5%
18.46
10%
10.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.3 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.74 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 14W 19D 24L from 57 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 19L across 57 games — 1.61 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Trabzonspor by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kayserispor heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 7W 11D 10L from their last 28 home games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 9W 7D 12L across their last 28 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Kayserispor are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.79 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
Kayserispor (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Blended
Trabzonspor
Blended
❓ Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 14W 19D 24L in their last 57 games (1.07 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 27W 11D 19L in their last 57 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Trabzonspor's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.14 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 9 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Oct 2025, when Trabzonspor won Trabzonspor 4-0 Kayserispor.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
2
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2026: Kayserispor 1-3 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 57%, Trabzonspor 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kayserispor) and 54% (Trabzonspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor have failed to score in 29% of games; Trabzonspor in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Trabzonspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Kayserispor's games and 61% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kayserispor's recent games and 54% of Trabzonspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 70% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kayserispor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor and Trabzonspor finished level at 0-0 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 22, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.47 xG and Trabzonspor 1.74 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Trabzonspor landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.82 / defence 1.41 against Trabzonspor attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 31% | Draw 27% | Trabzonspor 42%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 53%, Trabzonspor 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Trabzonspor arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.