Kayserispor 1-2 Trabzonspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trabzonspor at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Kayserispor face Trabzonspor.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kayserispor host Trabzonspor at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Kayserispor — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Kayserispor have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Trabzonspor have recorded 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Trabzonspor have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kayserispor 1.10 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Kayserispor's games and 60% of Trabzonspor's (from Kayserispor's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Kayserispor, 3 for Trabzonspor and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Kayserispor 1–0 Trabzonspor — a Kayserispor win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kayserispor in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Trabzonspor in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 52% versus Trabzonspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 55% | Trabzonspor 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.21 xG and Trabzonspor 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.847 / defence 1.055 | Trabzonspor attack 1.127 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.237. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 68 games and Trabzonspor's last 67.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 29% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 41%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 3.45 | Draw 3.35 | Trabzonspor 2.43. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trabzonspor are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trabzonspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kayserispor's last 10 home games and Trabzonspor's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 60% (last 10 home games) | Trabzonspor 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 33 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 29% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Kayserispor 1.21 / Trabzonspor 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.847 / def 1.055 | Trabzonspor attack 1.127 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Trabzonspor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Trabzonspor xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Kayserispor 1 - 2 Trabzonspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 33) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 29% chance of winning, Trabzonspor a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Trabzonspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kayserispor and Trabzonspor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.85x the league average against Trabzonspor's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trabzonspor's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 68 games and Trabzonspor's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trabzonspor Win
29%
3.45
30%
3.35
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.68
1.47
Trabzonspor xG
3.45
29%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
7%
15.03
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.47 for Trabzonspor, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 25W 15D 27L from 67 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Trabzonspor, meanwhile, have gone 32W 10D 25L across 67 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.34 PPG, Trabzonspor on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 14W 8D 11L from their last 33 home games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trabzonspor's away record stands at 11W 5D 17L across their last 33 away games, a 1.15 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Trabzonspor's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Kayserispor are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Trabzonspor are on 1.70 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
Kayserispor (Home) vs Trabzonspor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Current Season
Trabzonspor
Current Season
❓ Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 25W 15D 27L in their last 67 games (1.34 PPG), while Trabzonspor have gone 32W 10D 25L in their last 67 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Trabzonspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.52 PPG; Trabzonspor away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Trabzonspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Trabzonspor in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 9 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Trabzonspor have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Oct 2025, when Trabzonspor won Trabzonspor 4-0 Kayserispor.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Trabzonspor specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kayserispor
2
Draws
6
Trabzonspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 2, Trabzonspor have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Trabzonspor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 March 2026: Kayserispor 1-3 Trabzonspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Trabzonspor?
Trabzonspor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Trabzonspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 48%, Trabzonspor 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kayserispor) and 64% (Trabzonspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Trabzonspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Trabzonspor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Trabzonspor matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Kayserispor's games and 67% of Trabzonspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Kayserispor and Trabzonspor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Kayserispor's matches and 64% of Trabzonspor's.
Do Kayserispor and Trabzonspor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 81% of Trabzonspor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trabzonspor edge out Kayserispor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trabzonspor beat Kayserispor 1-2 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 33, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.21 xG and Trabzonspor 1.47 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.85 / defence 1.05 against Trabzonspor attack 1.13 / defence 0.99, drawn from 68/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 29% | Draw 30% | Trabzonspor 41%, with Trabzonspor to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 55%, Trabzonspor 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Trabzonspor's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.34 PPG, Trabzonspor 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trabzonspor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trabzonspor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.