Kayserispor 3-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 50%, yet in-form Rizespor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kayserispor vs Rizespor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kayserispor and Rizespor meet at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig (matchday 9). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 October 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
Kayserispor's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Kayserispor have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Kayserispor are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Rizespor have collected 1.75 PPG across their last 8 games: 4W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Rizespor's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 2L across their last 4 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Rizespor arrive in superior form — a 0.65 PPG advantage (1.75 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Kayserispor, 1 for Rizespor and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2022, ended Kayserispor 1–1 Rizespor — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (last 8 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Rizespor — key trading statistics (last 8 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 50% versus Rizespor 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 38% | Rizespor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.61 xG and Rizespor 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.856 / defence 0.759 | Rizespor attack 0.995 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.232. Rizespor's defence rating of 1.281 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kayserispor's projected output up. Kayserispor have a tight defence (rating 0.759), which is pulling Rizespor's projected output down. Data: built from Kayserispor's last 44 games and Rizespor's last 8.
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 50% | Draw 31% | Rizespor 18%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.99 | Draw 3.19 | Rizespor 5.41. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rizespor (1.75 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Kayserispor's last 10 home games and Rizespor's last 4 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Kayserispor 20% (last 10 home games) | Rizespor 75% (last 4 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, matchday 9 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 50% | Draw 31% | Rizespor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Kayserispor 1.61 / Rizespor 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.856 / def 0.759 | Rizespor attack 0.995 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Rizespor xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kayserispor vs Rizespor FAQs
What time does Kayserispor vs Rizespor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Rizespor kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Kayserispor 3 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Rizespor part of?
Kayserispor vs Rizespor is a Süper Lig fixture (matchday 9) (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 50% chance of winning, Rizespor a 18% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kayserispor and Rizespor will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Kayserispor vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kayserispor's attack at 0.86x the league average against Rizespor's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rizespor's attack (0.99x) against Kayserispor's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Kayserispor's last 44 games and Rizespor's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
50%
1.99
31%
3.19
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.54
0.93
Rizespor xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
4%
27.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kayserispor vs Rizespor Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.93 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Rizespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 2W 4D 2L from 8 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Rizespor, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 2L across 8 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rizespor by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kayserispor heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 2W 2D 0L from their last 4 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Rizespor's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across their last 4 away games, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 1.12 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Rizespor in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
Kayserispor (Home) vs Rizespor (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kayserispor
Blended
Rizespor
Blended
❓ Kayserispor vs Rizespor Form FAQs
What form are Kayserispor and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Rizespor away?
Kayserispor's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 2.00 PPG; Rizespor away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Rizespor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Rizespor in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Kayserispor and Rizespor, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Süper Lig. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Kayserispor have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rizespor won Rizespor 3-0 Kayserispor on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rizespor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kayserispor
1
Draws
3
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Kayserispor vs Rizespor H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Rizespor?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Kayserispor have won 4, Rizespor have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Rizespor last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: Kayserispor 2-0 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Rizespor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 25%, Rizespor 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 25% for Kayserispor and 100% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Kayserispor have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kayserispor vs Rizespor Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kayserispor and Rizespor matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 75% of Rizespor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kayserispor and Rizespor matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 25% of Kayserispor's matches and 100% of Rizespor's.
Do Kayserispor and Rizespor matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 100% of Rizespor's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Rizespor 3-1 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 9, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.61 xG and Rizespor 0.93 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kayserispor beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.86 / defence 0.76 against Rizespor attack 0.99 / defence 1.28, drawn from 44/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 50% | Draw 31% | Rizespor 18%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 38%, Rizespor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Rizespor's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rizespor arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Kayserispor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.