Kayserispor 3-0 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Hatayspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kayserispor and Hatayspor meet at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 March 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kayserispor at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hatayspor (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hatayspor's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kayserispor lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2022, ended 4–0 with Kayserispor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Kayserispor — key trading statistics (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Hatayspor — key trading statistics (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 61% versus Hatayspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 61% | Hatayspor 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 2.28 xG and Hatayspor 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.998 / defence 1.079 | Hatayspor attack 0.725 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.262. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Kayserispor games / 61 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 66% | Draw 19% | Hatayspor 15%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Hatayspor 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Kayserispor (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 70% | Hatayspor 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 66% | Draw 19% | Hatayspor 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 56% | xG Kayserispor 2.28 / Hatayspor 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.998 / def 1.079 | Hatayspor attack 0.725 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Hatayspor xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?
Kayserispor 3 - 0 Hatayspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Hatayspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 66% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Kayserispor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Hatayspor?
Record (3 meetings): Kayserispor 2W | Draws 0 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Kayserispor and Hatayspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (1.00) and Hatayspor's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.72x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 62/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
66%
1.50
19%
5.38
15%
6.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.27
0.99
Hatayspor xG
1.50
66%
Home win
5.38
19%
Draw
6.69
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
10%
9.80
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
2%
65.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.99 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Hatayspor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Kayserispor have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 23W 13D 25L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hatayspor's form line: 21W 13D 27L from 61 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.25 for Hatayspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kayserispor have posted 1.71 PPG from 31 outings (16W 5D 10L).
On the road, Hatayspor have gone 7W 4D 20L from 31 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hatayspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.23 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kayserispor have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Hatayspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 23W 13D 25L in their last 61 games (1.34 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 21W 13D 27L in their last 61 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Hatayspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.71 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Kayserispor have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kayserispor won 5-0 on 28 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Kayserispor
1
Draws
1
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 6, Hatayspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when Kayserispor 5-0 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Hatayspor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 55%, Hatayspor 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Kayserispor) and 58% (Hatayspor). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Hatayspor in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 42% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Kayserispor's matches and 58% of Hatayspor's.
Do Kayserispor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Kayserispor run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Hatayspor 3-0 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 26, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 2.28 xG and Hatayspor 0.99 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hatayspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.00 / defence 1.08 against Hatayspor attack 0.72 / defence 1.38, drawn from 62/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 66% | Draw 19% | Hatayspor 15%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 61%, Hatayspor 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Hatayspor's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.34 PPG, Hatayspor 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.