Kayserispor 0-0 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kayserispor at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Başakşehir encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 7 as Kayserispor welcome Başakşehir to RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Monday 2 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kayserispor stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kayserispor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kayserispor's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Kayserispor are significantly better at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Başakşehir have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Başakşehir have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Başakşehir away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Kayserispor) versus 1.30 (Başakşehir). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Kayserispor, 1 for Başakşehir and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with Kayserispor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kayserispor trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Başakşehir trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 52% versus Başakşehir 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 62% | Başakşehir 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.46 xG and Başakşehir 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.958 / defence 0.798 | Başakşehir attack 0.874 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.293. Kayserispor's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Kayserispor games / 42 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 46% | Draw 34% | Başakşehir 20%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.17 | Draw 2.94 | Başakşehir 5.00. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kayserispor are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kayserispor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 30% | Başakşehir 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Monday 2 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 46% | Draw 34% | Başakşehir 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Kayserispor 1.46 / Başakşehir 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.958 / def 0.798 | Başakşehir attack 0.874 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Başakşehir xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Başakşehir kick off?
Kayserispor vs Başakşehir kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 2 October 2023 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Kayserispor 0 - 0 Başakşehir.
Where is Kayserispor vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Başakşehir part of?
Kayserispor vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 46% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 20% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Kayserispor and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Başakşehir?
Record (4 meetings): Kayserispor 3W | Draws 0 | Başakşehir 1W.
What form are Kayserispor and Başakşehir in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Başakşehir (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kayserispor's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, Başakşehir's attack versus Kayserispor's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
46%
2.16
34%
2.94
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.36
0.90
Başakşehir xG
2.16
46%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
5%
21.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.90 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 17W 8D 17L from 42 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kayserispor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Başakşehir, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 15L across 42 games — 1.55 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Başakşehir, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kayserispor on 1.40 PPG, Başakşehir on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 11W 3D 7L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Başakşehir's away record stands at 7W 6D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kayserispor are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.36 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Early Season
Başakşehir
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 17W 8D 17L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 19W 8D 15L in their last 42 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Başakşehir away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.71 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Kayserispor or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kayserispor have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2026, when Başakşehir won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kayserispor's record when hosting Başakşehir specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Kayserispor
3
Draws
2
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 5, Başakşehir have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Kayserispor 0-3 Başakşehir.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Başakşehir?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 43%, Başakşehir 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Kayserispor) and 38% (Başakşehir).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Başakşehir in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Başakşehir?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Kayserispor's recent matches and 43% of Başakşehir's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kayserispor vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Kayserispor's recent games and 38% of Başakşehir's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kayserispor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor and Başakşehir finished level at 0-0 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.46 xG and Başakşehir 0.90 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Başakşehir landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.96 / defence 0.80 against Başakşehir attack 0.87 / defence 1.04, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 46% | Draw 34% | Başakşehir 20%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 62%, Başakşehir 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Başakşehir's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.40 PPG, Başakşehir 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Başakşehir (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.