Kayserispor 2-0 Antalyaspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kayserispor at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kadir Has Şehir Stadı plays host to Kayserispor versus Antalyaspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 5 December 2021 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Kayserispor have gone 3W 2D 1L this season (6 games, 1.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.83 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Kayserispor are significantly better at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı than their overall form suggests.
Antalyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Antalyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Antalyaspor have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Kayserispor, 1.40 for Antalyaspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Antalyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kayserispor 57% versus Antalyaspor 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 50% | Antalyaspor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.57 xG and Antalyaspor 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 1.053 / defence 1.031 | Antalyaspor attack 0.860 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.087. Antalyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Kayserispor games / 14 Antalyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 51% | Draw 27% | Antalyaspor 22%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Antalyaspor 4.55. Kayserispor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kayserispor as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 67% | Antalyaspor 50% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Kadir Has Şehir Stadı • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 51% | Draw 27% | Antalyaspor 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Kayserispor 1.57 / Antalyaspor 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 1.053 / def 1.031 | Antalyaspor attack 0.860 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.087 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Antalyaspor xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Kayserispor 2 - 0 Antalyaspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 51% chance of winning, Antalyaspor a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kayserispor and Antalyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Antalyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Antalyaspor (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Kayserispor's attack rating (1.05) and Antalyaspor's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Antalyaspor's attack (0.86x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
51%
1.98
27%
3.66
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
2.54
0.96
Antalyaspor xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
5%
21.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Kayserispor and 0.96 for Antalyaspor, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kayserispor come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 4D 6L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Antalyaspor sit at 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (5W 3D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Antalyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Kayserispor against 1.29 for Antalyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Kayserispor's home form reads 3W 2D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Kayserispor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Antalyaspor have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antalyaspor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kayserispor are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Antalyaspor are on 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Antalyaspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Antalyaspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Antalyaspor have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Antalyaspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.83 PPG; Antalyaspor away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antalyaspor won 4-0 on 11 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Antalyaspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Kayserispor
4
Draws
2
Antalyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Antalyaspor?
From 10 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 4, Antalyaspor have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Antalyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Kayserispor 1-0 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Kayserispor and Antalyaspor?
Kayserispor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kayserispor 67%, Antalyaspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Kayserispor) and 50% (Antalyaspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Antalyaspor in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Antalyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Antalyaspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kayserispor's games and 50% of Antalyaspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Antalyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Kayserispor's recent games and 50% of Antalyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Antalyaspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Antalyaspor in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kayserispor cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Antalyaspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor beat Antalyaspor 2-0 at Kadir Has Şehir Stadı, Regular Season - 15, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.57 xG and Antalyaspor 0.96 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Antalyaspor landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Antalyaspor attack 0.86 / defence 1.29, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 51% | Draw 27% | Antalyaspor 22%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 50%, Antalyaspor 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Antalyaspor's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.14 PPG, Antalyaspor 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kayserispor win broke the near-deadlock. Kayserispor (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Antalyaspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.