Kayserispor 0-0 Adana Demirspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kayserispor at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Adana Demirspor make the trip to RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu to face Kayserispor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 November 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kayserispor have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kayserispor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Kayserispor have posted 1W 5D 4L at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Adana Demirspor (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Adana Demirspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Adana Demirspor's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Kayserispor. A 0.70 PPG lead over Adana Demirspor (0.80 vs 0.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Kayserispor register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Adana Demirspor in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Kayserispor lead 0W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Kayserispor half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Adana Demirspor half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kayserispor 57% and Adana Demirspor 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kayserispor 53% | Adana Demirspor 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kayserispor 1.66 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kayserispor attack 0.929 / defence 1.270 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.902 / defence 1.229. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.328. Adana Demirspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.229 — this is suppressing Kayserispor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Kayserispor games / 47 Adana Demirspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kayserispor 41% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 35%. Fair-value odds: Kayserispor 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Adana Demirspor 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kayserispor at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kayserispor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kayserispor 80% | Adana Demirspor 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kayserispor 41% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Kayserispor 1.66 / Adana Demirspor 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Kayserispor attack 0.929 / def 1.270 | Adana Demirspor attack 0.902 / def 1.229 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Kayserispor (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Kayserispor xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Adana Demirspor xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor kick off?
Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor?
Kayserispor 0 - 0 Adana Demirspor.
Where is Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor being played?
The match is being played at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu.
What competition is Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor part of?
Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our statistical model gives Kayserispor a 41% chance of winning, Adana Demirspor a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kayserispor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor will score (BTTS).
Will Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor?
Record (6 meetings): Kayserispor 0W | Draws 5 | Adana Demirspor 1W.
What form are Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor in?
Kayserispor (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Adana Demirspor (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kayserispor's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Adana Demirspor's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Adana Demirspor's attack (0.90x) against Kayserispor's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kayserispor Win
41%
2.46
25%
4.07
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Kayserispor xG
Total xG
3.18
1.52
Adana Demirspor xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
19%
5.28
Win to Nil
9%
11.24
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Kayserispor and 1.52 for Adana Demirspor, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kayserispor's recent record stands at 12W 17D 18L from 47 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Kayserispor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Adana Demirspor, meanwhile, have gone 10W 15D 22L across 47 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Adana Demirspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Kayserispor against 0.96 for Adana Demirspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kayserispor have managed 6W 10D 7L from 23 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Adana Demirspor's away record stands at 1W 11D 11L across 23 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kayserispor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kayserispor are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Adana Demirspor are on 1.34 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Adana Demirspor in 64%.
Last 47 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kayserispor
Blended
Adana Demirspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor in coming into this match?
Kayserispor have gone 12W 17D 18L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while Adana Demirspor have gone 10W 15D 22L in their last 47 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kayserispor at home or Adana Demirspor away?
Kayserispor's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kayserispor at home: 1.22 PPG; Adana Demirspor away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kayserispor have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Adana Demirspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Kayserispor
6
Draws
1
Adana Demirspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kayserispor have won 1, Adana Demirspor have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-2 Kayserispor.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kayserispor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Kayserispor, 70% for Adana Demirspor — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kayserispor) and 52% (Adana Demirspor).
On the defensive side: Kayserispor have failed to score in 26% of games; Adana Demirspor in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kayserispor home games / Adana Demirspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kayserispor play Adana Demirspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Kayserispor's games and 70% of Adana Demirspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kayserispor vs Adana Demirspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Kayserispor's recent games and 52% of Adana Demirspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor tend to score early?
Kayserispor have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Adana Demirspor in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kayserispor's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kayserispor and Adana Demirspor finished level at 0-0 at RHG Enertürk Enerji Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kayserispor 1.66 xG and Adana Demirspor 1.52 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kayserispor fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Adana Demirspor landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kayserispor attack 0.93 / defence 1.27 against Adana Demirspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.23, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kayserispor 41% | Draw 25% | Adana Demirspor 35%, with Kayserispor to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kayserispor 53%, Adana Demirspor 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kayserispor's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kayserispor 1.13 PPG, Adana Demirspor 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kayserispor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.