Kasımpaşa 3-1 Rizespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Rizespor travel to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu to take on Kasımpaşa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 March 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kasımpaşa stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Rizespor have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Rizespor have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Kasımpaşa are in the better shape of the two on current Süper Lig data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Rizespor 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Rizespor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Kasımpaşa in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Rizespor in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 64% versus Rizespor 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 54% | Rizespor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.86 xG and Rizespor 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.052 / defence 1.305 | Rizespor attack 0.607 / defence 1.487. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.188. Rizespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.487 — this is suppressing Kasımpaşa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Kasımpaşa games / 28 Rizespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 59% | Draw 23% | Rizespor 18%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Rizespor 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Kasımpaşa (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kasımpaşa are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 80% | Rizespor 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 59% | Draw 23% | Rizespor 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Kasımpaşa 1.86 / Rizespor 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.052 / def 1.305 | Rizespor attack 0.607 / def 1.487 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Rizespor xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 12 March 2022 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Kasımpaşa 3 - 1 Rizespor.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 59% chance of winning, Rizespor a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Rizespor will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Rizespor?
Record (1 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 0 | Rizespor 1W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Rizespor in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Rizespor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Rizespor's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Rizespor's attack versus Kasımpaşa's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
59%
1.71
23%
4.29
18%
5.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
2.80
0.94
Rizespor xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
5.50
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
3%
35.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.6 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Rizespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 0.94 for Rizespor, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 28 games, going 8W 8D 12L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Rizespor sit at 0.82 PPG from 28 outings (6W 5D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kasımpaşa on 1.14 PPG, Rizespor on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 4W 4D 5L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Rizespor have taken 0.23 points per game from 13 outings (0W 3D 10L). That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rizespor's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kasımpaşa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Rizespor are on 0.89 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Rizespor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Rizespor in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 8W 8D 12L in their last 28 games (1.14 PPG), while Rizespor have gone 6W 5D 17L in their last 28 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Rizespor away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.23 PPG; Rizespor away: 0.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2026, when Rizespor won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kasımpaşa's record when hosting Rizespor specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
2
Rizespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Rizespor?
From 8 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 4, Rizespor have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Rizespor last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Kasımpaşa 0-3 Rizespor.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Rizespor?
Kasımpaşa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Rizespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 77%, Rizespor 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Kasımpaşa and 62% for Rizespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rizespor in 62%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Rizespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Rizespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Kasımpaşa's games and 38% of Rizespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Rizespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 62% of Rizespor's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Rizespor tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Rizespor in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kasımpaşa cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rizespor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kasımpaşa beat Rizespor 3-1 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 29, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 1.86 xG and Rizespor 0.94 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kasımpaşa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.05 / defence 1.30 against Rizespor attack 0.61 / defence 1.49, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 59% | Draw 23% | Rizespor 18%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 54%, Rizespor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Rizespor's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.14 PPG, Rizespor 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kasımpaşa win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.