Kasımpaşa 1-1 Kocaelispor – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Kasımpaşa at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kasımpaşa vs Kocaelispor encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 32 as Kasımpaşa welcome Kocaelispor to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Süper Lig games this season, Kasımpaşa have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Kasımpaşa's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Kocaelispor — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Kocaelispor have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Kasımpaşa carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Kasımpaşa's 20% rate and Kocaelispor's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Kasımpaşa, 0 for Kocaelispor and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Kasımpaşa in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Kocaelispor in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 52% versus Kocaelispor 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kasımpaşa 45% | Kocaelispor 29%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 1.21 xG and Kocaelispor 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 0.786 / defence 0.956 | Kocaelispor attack 0.657 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.128. Kasımpaşa's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Kasımpaşa games / 31 Kocaelispor games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 45% | Draw 37% | Kocaelispor 18%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.22 | Draw 2.70 | Kocaelispor 5.56. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (37%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Kasımpaşa at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kasımpaşa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 20% | Kocaelispor 30% BTTS from recent games.

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