Kasımpaşa 2-3 Başakşehir – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kasımpaşa at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu plays host to Kasımpaşa versus Başakşehir in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Kasımpaşa (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kasımpaşa at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Başakşehir's overall Süper Lig record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Başakşehir's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Kasımpaşa, 1.80 for Başakşehir — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Başakşehir in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Başakşehir, who have claimed 5 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.2 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Başakşehir have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Kasımpaşa — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Başakşehir — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kasımpaşa 66% versus Başakşehir 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kasımpaşa 65% | Başakşehir 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kasımpaşa 2.17 xG and Başakşehir 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kasımpaşa attack 1.181 / defence 1.174 | Başakşehir attack 1.255 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.249. Başakşehir have an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 71 Kasımpaşa games / 71 Başakşehir games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 46% | Draw 20% | Başakşehir 34%. Fair-value odds: Kasımpaşa 2.17 | Draw 5.00 | Başakşehir 2.94. Kasımpaşa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 75% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kasımpaşa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 75% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kasımpaşa 90% | Başakşehir 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kasımpaşa 46% | Draw 20% | Başakşehir 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 75% | xG Kasımpaşa 2.17 / Başakşehir 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Kasımpaşa attack 1.181 / def 1.174 | Başakşehir attack 1.255 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Kasımpaşa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Kasımpaşa xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Başakşehir xG
75%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir kick off?
Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Kasımpaşa 2 - 3 Başakşehir.
Where is Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir being played?
The match is being played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu.
What competition is Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir part of?
Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our statistical model gives Kasımpaşa a 46% chance of winning, Başakşehir a 34% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Kasımpaşa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir will score (BTTS).
Will Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
Record (6 meetings): Kasımpaşa 0W | Draws 1 | Başakşehir 5W.
What form are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir in?
Kasımpaşa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Başakşehir (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kasımpaşa's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Başakşehir's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. Flip it around — Başakşehir's attack (1.25x) against Kasımpaşa's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kasımpaşa Win
46%
2.17
20%
4.89
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Kasımpaşa xG
Total xG
4.01
1.84
Başakşehir xG
2.17
46%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.34
25%
BTTS No
3.92
Clean Sheet
16%
6.31
11%
8.73
Win to Nil
7%
13.71
4%
26.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.2%.
How many goals are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Kasımpaşa and 1.84 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kasımpaşa come into this having played 71 games, going 27W 21D 23L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Başakşehir sit at 1.58 PPG from 71 outings (33W 13D 25L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Kasımpaşa against 1.58 for Başakşehir. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Kasımpaşa's home form reads 14W 11D 10L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.51 PPG return.
Away from home, Başakşehir have taken 1.37 points per game from 35 outings (14W 6D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Kasımpaşa are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Başakşehir are on 1.58 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kasımpaşa have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kasımpaşa
Current Season
Başakşehir
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir in coming into this match?
Kasımpaşa have gone 27W 21D 23L in their last 71 games (1.44 PPG), while Başakşehir have gone 33W 13D 25L in their last 71 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kasımpaşa at home or Başakşehir away?
Kasımpaşa's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kasımpaşa at home: 1.51 PPG; Başakşehir away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Kasımpaşa or Başakşehir been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kasımpaşa have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Başakşehir in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Başakşehir won 4-0 on 8 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kasımpaşa have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Başakşehir — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Kasımpaşa
2
Draws
8
Başakşehir
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
From 10 meetings on record, Kasımpaşa have won 0, Başakşehir have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Başakşehir 1-1 Kasımpaşa.
Who has won more matches between Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir?
Başakşehir have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kasımpaşa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Başakşehir are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kasımpaşa 71%, Başakşehir 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Kasımpaşa) and 49% (Başakşehir). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Başakşehir in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kasımpaşa home games / Başakşehir away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kasımpaşa play Başakşehir?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Kasımpaşa's games and 49% of Başakşehir's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kasımpaşa vs Başakşehir usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Kasımpaşa's matches and 49% of Başakşehir's.
Do Kasımpaşa and Başakşehir tend to score early?
Kasımpaşa have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Başakşehir in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Başakşehir defy the odds to beat Kasımpaşa 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Başakşehir beat Kasımpaşa 2-3 at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kasımpaşa 2.17 xG and Başakşehir 1.84 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Başakşehir outscored their 1.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kasımpaşa attack 1.18 / defence 1.17 against Başakşehir attack 1.25 / defence 1.16, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kasımpaşa 46% | Draw 20% | Başakşehir 34%, with Kasımpaşa to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Başakşehir win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kasımpaşa 65%, Başakşehir 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kasımpaşa's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Başakşehir's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kasımpaşa 1.44 PPG, Başakşehir 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Başakşehir win broke the near-deadlock. Kasımpaşa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Başakşehir (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.