Hatayspor 0-3 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sivasspor at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hatayspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Süper Lig clash, Regular Season - 27 as Hatayspor welcome Sivasspor to Yeni Hatay Stadyumu. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 April 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hatayspor stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Süper Lig matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Hatayspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Hatayspor have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Sivasspor have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Sivasspor's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Hatayspor's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hatayspor, 1 for Sivasspor and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Hatayspor winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sivasspor trading profile (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 50% versus Sivasspor 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 60% | Sivasspor 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.45 xG and Sivasspor 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.757 / defence 1.085 | Sivasspor attack 1.077 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.675 / away 1.262. Hatayspor's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 62 Hatayspor games / 63 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 37% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 38%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Sivasspor 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sivasspor are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sivasspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hatayspor 50% | Sivasspor 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 37% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Hatayspor 1.45 / Sivasspor 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.757 / def 1.085 | Sivasspor attack 1.077 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.675 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Sivasspor (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Sivasspor xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Hatayspor 0 - 3 Sivasspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 37% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sivasspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hatayspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Sivasspor?
Record (3 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 1W.
What form are Hatayspor and Sivasspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hatayspor's attack rating (0.76) and Sivasspor's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sivasspor's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sivasspor Win
37%
2.70
25%
4.06
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.92
1.48
Sivasspor xG
2.70
37%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
8%
11.80
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Hatayspor and 1.48 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hatayspor's recent record stands at 21W 13D 28L from 62 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hatayspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 23L across 62 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hatayspor on 1.23 PPG, Sivasspor on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hatayspor have managed 14W 9D 7L from 30 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 11W 4D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatayspor are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.34 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 63%.
Last 62 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 21W 13D 28L in their last 62 games (1.23 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 21W 18D 23L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.70 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Nov 2021, when Sivasspor won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Sivasspor specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
3
Draws
3
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Sivasspor have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2025, when Hatayspor 3-2 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 60%, Sivasspor 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Hatayspor and 67% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hatayspor's games and 60% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Hatayspor's matches and 67% of Sivasspor's.
Do Hatayspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sivasspor run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hatayspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Hatayspor 0-3 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 27, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.45 xG and Sivasspor 1.48 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hatayspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sivasspor outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.76 / defence 1.08 against Sivasspor attack 1.08 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 37% | Draw 25% | Sivasspor 38%, with Sivasspor to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 60%, Sivasspor 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sivasspor's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.23 PPG, Sivasspor 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sivasspor (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.