Hatayspor 4-1 Giresunspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hatayspor at 42%, yet in-form Giresunspor provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hatayspor vs Giresunspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Giresunspor travel to Yeni Hatay Stadyumu to take on Hatayspor. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 May 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Hatayspor have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hatayspor's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Hatayspor are significantly better at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Giresunspor — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Giresunspor's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Giresunspor are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hatayspor register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Giresunspor in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Hatayspor have won 1, Giresunspor 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Hatayspor winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Hatayspor trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Giresunspor trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hatayspor 54% versus Giresunspor 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hatayspor 57% | Giresunspor 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hatayspor 1.33 xG and Giresunspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hatayspor attack 0.956 / defence 1.011 | Giresunspor attack 0.710 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.369. Data: 37 Hatayspor games / 37 Giresunspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hatayspor 42% | Draw 33% | Giresunspor 25%. Fair-value odds: Hatayspor 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Giresunspor 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hatayspor are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Giresunspor (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hatayspor offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Hatayspor 60% | Giresunspor 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hatayspor vs Giresunspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Yeni Hatay Stadyumu • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hatayspor 42% | Draw 33% | Giresunspor 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Hatayspor 1.33 / Giresunspor 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Hatayspor attack 0.956 / def 1.011 | Giresunspor attack 0.710 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Hatayspor xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Giresunspor xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hatayspor vs Giresunspor kick off?
Hatayspor vs Giresunspor kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Hatayspor vs Giresunspor?
Hatayspor 4 - 1 Giresunspor.
Where is Hatayspor vs Giresunspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu.
What competition is Hatayspor vs Giresunspor part of?
Hatayspor vs Giresunspor is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Hatayspor vs Giresunspor?
Our statistical model gives Hatayspor a 42% chance of winning, Giresunspor a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hatayspor vs Giresunspor?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hatayspor and Giresunspor will score (BTTS).
Will Hatayspor vs Giresunspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Giresunspor?
Record (1 meetings): Hatayspor 1W | Draws 0 | Giresunspor 0W.
What form are Hatayspor and Giresunspor in?
Hatayspor (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Giresunspor (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hatayspor's attack at 0.96x the league average against Giresunspor's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Giresunspor's attack versus Hatayspor's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
42%
2.37
33%
3.04
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Hatayspor xG
Total xG
2.32
0.98
Giresunspor xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
7%
15.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hatayspor vs Giresunspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hatayspor and Giresunspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Hatayspor and 0.98 for Giresunspor, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Hatayspor vs Giresunspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Hatayspor have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 14W 8D 15L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Giresunspor's form line: 12W 9D 16L from 37 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hatayspor on 1.35 PPG, Giresunspor on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hatayspor have posted 1.78 PPG from 18 outings (9W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.35 PPG overall — Hatayspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Giresunspor have gone 5W 4D 9L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hatayspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hatayspor are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Giresunspor are on 1.08 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hatayspor
Current Season
Giresunspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hatayspor and Giresunspor in coming into this match?
Hatayspor have gone 14W 8D 15L in their last 37 games (1.35 PPG), while Giresunspor have gone 12W 9D 16L in their last 37 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hatayspor at home or Giresunspor away?
Hatayspor's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hatayspor at home: 1.78 PPG; Giresunspor away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 May 2022, when Hatayspor won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hatayspor's record when hosting Giresunspor specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Hatayspor
1
Draws
1
Giresunspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hatayspor and Giresunspor?
From 4 meetings on record, Hatayspor have won 2, Giresunspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hatayspor and Giresunspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2023, when Giresunspor 3-0 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Hatayspor and Giresunspor?
Hatayspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Giresunspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hatayspor 61%, Giresunspor 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Hatayspor) and 39% (Giresunspor).
On the defensive side: Giresunspor in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hatayspor home games / Giresunspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hatayspor play Giresunspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Hatayspor's games and 50% of Giresunspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hatayspor vs Giresunspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Hatayspor's recent games and 39% of Giresunspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hatayspor and Giresunspor tend to score early?
Hatayspor have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Giresunspor in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hatayspor run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Giresunspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Giresunspor 4-1 at Yeni Hatay Stadyumu, Regular Season - 38, in the Süper Lig. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hatayspor 1.33 xG and Giresunspor 0.98 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Hatayspor beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hatayspor attack 0.96 / defence 1.01 against Giresunspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.16, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hatayspor 42% | Draw 33% | Giresunspor 25%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hatayspor 57%, Giresunspor 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hatayspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Giresunspor's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hatayspor 1.35 PPG, Giresunspor 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hatayspor win broke the near-deadlock. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. Giresunspor (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.